According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the price of lead 1 # was 16590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the lead price of 16810 yuan/ton on January 1st.

This week’s market analysis

Due to the early stocking at the end of last month, which squeezed the demand for January, it was difficult for terminal demand to be transmitted upwards. The weakening of downstream demand will make it difficult for lead prices to maintain high levels, resulting in an overall downward trend in lead prices in the first half of this month.

Native end

The expansion of raw material procurement channels for primary lead refineries has not led to a strong willingness to increase quotations. Under the influence of significantly improved raw material inventory and the pursuit of comprehensive recycling profits, production constraints have weakened. However, there are still maintenance during the Spring Festival, and monthly supply has decreased compared to the previous period.

Regeneration end

The supply gap of used batteries has existed for a long time, coupled with the low number of scrapped batteries in winter and the increased demand for inventory in recycled lead refineries during the Spring Festival, prices are expected to stabilize. The impact of winter on production in the north, shrinking profits, some refineries undergoing Spring Festival maintenance, and environmental disturbances still pose uncertainties, resulting in a significant month on month decrease in the production of recycled lead.

Demand side

The consumption of lead-acid batteries has recovered to some extent, but dealers have stocked up due to the previous drop in lead prices. Moreover, this winter is relatively warm, and the improvement in stocking demand before the Spring Festival may be limited. There is a possibility of seasonal decline in the operating rate of enterprises in the second half of the month. However, based on recent policy statements, the continuation of the trade in policy and the expansion of subsidies are expected to improve the consumption of lead-acid batteries in the medium to long term.

comprehensive analysis

As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an increase in maintenance of primary and recycled lead refineries, while the environmental interference rate is relatively high, resulting in reduced pressure on the supply side. The demand for lead-acid battery companies has fallen seasonally, but the expectation of stocking up before the Spring Festival provides some support. Both supply and demand are weak, and the trend of lead prices is not driven enough. It is expected that the low-level range of lead prices will mainly fluctuate in January.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On January 16th, the average market price was 7511.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market continues to strengthen and consolidate. The significant decrease in the number of arrivals at ports in East China has boosted the market, leading to an increase in the price of pure benzene. The prices in Shandong’s local refining market have fluctuated, with most enterprises focusing on stability. International crude oil futures have risen, and the price of pure benzene in foreign markets has increased. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is good. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

The warm cost dominates the price trend. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fluctuated and adjusted upwards in January. As of January 14th, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 7276 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.10% from the beginning of the month.

The US Treasury Department has imposed comprehensive sanctions on a European country’s oil industry, intensifying market concerns about disruptions in its oil supply. International crude oil prices have risen sharply. As of January 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.50 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.92 per barrel.

The PTA spot market followed the rise of crude oil, with the average PTA market price in East China at 4996 yuan/ton as of January 14th, up 4.30% from the beginning of the month. In terms of self supply, Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton PTA plant underwent maintenance on December 12th and will restart on January 13th, 2025. Rolex’s 1.25 million tons will undergo maintenance around January 13th. The current spot market supply is still sufficient, and the industry operating rate is around 81%.

In addition, the decline in self supply has also had a greater impact on the driving force of polyester staple fiber. Recently, there has been a reduction in production and an increase in maintenance of polyester staple fiber equipment, resulting in a gradual contraction of supply liquidity.

There is no significant increase in terminal orders, and the main focus is on essential procurement. The Spring Festival is approaching, and there are many holiday maintenance plans. The operating rate of terminal looms has dropped to around 63%, and the stocking phase has ended.

Business analysts believe that the short-term cost increase dominates the polyester staple fiber market, but its sustainability is highly uncertain, so further upward space is limited.

Sinopec East China’s listing price will increase by 100 yuan/ton, with an execution of 6050 yuan/ton, while Sinopec North China’s listing price will increase by 100 yuan/ton, with an execution of 6150 yuan/ton. The port inventory has significantly decreased to 23000 tons, and the rise in raw materials has driven a positive attitude among traders. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the negotiated price reference in the East China market is 6000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from yesterday.

Raw materials are supported by rising prices, spot circulation sources are tightening, petrochemical companies are raising their listing prices in a concentrated manner, traders have a positive attitude, and offers are rapidly rising. Expected to operate at a high level in the short term.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on January 13th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 6000./ 100

Shandong region/ 6050./ 50

Yanshan region/ 6050./ 50

South China region/ 6050./ 50

In 2024, Shunding rubber first rose and then fell, and overall rose

In 2024, the significant increase in the cost of butadiene rubber supported the high price of butadiene rubber. The profit of butadiene rubber enterprises decreased, and the overall industry production was low. In addition, the price of natural rubber increased significantly, and the demand for substitute butadiene rubber increased. The overall fundamentals of the butadiene rubber market in 2024 were relatively strong, with prices rising sharply in the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, due to the impact of cost decline and increased production, the next high point fell and then the range was mainly adjusted. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, 2024, the market price of butadiene rubber was 13720 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.38% from 11739 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; The high point of the cycle was 16810 yuan/ton in early October, and the low point of the cycle was 12200 yuan/ton at the end of January.

In the first three quarters, unexpected incidents occurred frequently in the supply side of raw material butadiene, and prices continued to rise. In addition, the continuous losses of the Shunding rubber equipment and the frequent proactive production control and parking behaviors of enterprises have led to tight supply in the Shunding rubber market. In addition, in August and September, natural rubber was affected by typhoon weather, and there were concerns about tight supply in the market. Shanghai rubber prices quickly rose, and butadiene rubber was driven by this, resulting in a resonance increase in current prices. After the National Day holiday at the beginning of the fourth quarter, accompanied by a cooling of macro sentiment and a high drop in the price of raw material butadiene, the profits of Shunding rubber factory have recovered, and the production of Shunding has gradually increased, resulting in increased supply pressure. Downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber, but resisting high priced sources. In addition, domestic natural rubber prices have stabilized at a high level, and the substitutability of butadiene rubber still exists. Under the comprehensive influence, the market for butadiene rubber in the fourth quarter mainly saw a range consolidation after a high-level decline.

The basic outlook for butadiene rubber in 2024 is good

The tight supply in the butadiene market has led to a significant increase in prices, while the cost of butadiene rubber is supported

In 2024, the start of the raw material butadiene plant was relatively low. On the one hand, the release of new production capacity was not smooth, and on the other hand, some butadiene plants in Southeast Asia were temporarily shut down, resulting in a tight supply of butadiene resources in domestic and foreign markets and a significant increase in butadiene prices. In the fourth quarter, due to the expected commissioning of a plant in Tianjin, the price of butadiene fell from a high level. According to the monitoring of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, 2024, the domestic price of butadiene was 10800 yuan/ton, an increase of% from 8575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and the peak of the cycle was 13725 yuan/ton in early July.

The overall production of Shunding rubber plant in 2024 is relatively low, with no pressure on the supply side

Affected by continuous cost increases in the first three quarters of 2024, Shunding Rubber is facing a significant loss situation, and the overall enthusiasm of rubber factories to start production is low. The supply side is facing strong market support; In the fourth quarter, with the profit recovery brought by the decrease in costs, the early parking facilities were gradually restarted, and the supply of butadiene rubber increased.

The overall stability and fluctuation of downstream tire construction in 2024 provide support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber

In 2024, the operating rate of all steel tires remained relatively low compared to the same period last year, but the inventory of all steel tires gradually decreased in the second half of the year and the operating rate steadily increased. In 2024, the operating rate of semi steel tires remained relatively high year-on-year, and downstream passenger car sales continued to improve. The inventory of semi steel tires has remained at a relatively low level. Although the production of all steel tires has a low demand for dragging rubber, the overall consumption of butadiene rubber in tire production is relatively high year-on-year due to the sustained improvement in demand for semi steel tires.

Outlook for the Shunding Rubber Market in 2025

Except for the newly put into operation units in 2024, there are still plans to put new butadiene production capacity into operation in 2025. According to statistics, China’s butadiene production capacity in 2024 is 6.697 million tons per year, an increase of 150000 tons from 6.546 million tons in 2023. According to statistical data, China’s butadiene production capacity plan is expected to increase by about 1.2 million tons in 2025. Based on this amount, China’s butadiene production capacity is expected to reach 7.89 million tons per year by 2025., Therefore, the market expects that the supply of butadiene will become relatively loose in 2025, and the supply side’s support for prices will weaken.

At present, Yulong’s 150000 ton Gaoshun Shunding rubber plant is in the trial stage, and it is expected to release production in the first quarter of 2025, with a slight increase in Shunding rubber production capacity. In addition, in 2025, except for the major overhaul plan in Maoming, most other facilities will mainly undergo minor repairs. In addition, the expected cost decline will stimulate rubber enterprises to actively schedule production. It is comprehensively expected that the supply of butadiene rubber in 2025 will be more relaxed than in 2024.

On the one hand, the global resident car stock will maintain a growth trend from 2023 to 2025; On the other hand, in the past 2024, the global share of cheap tires in Asia has increased. Overall, the improvement of global residents’ consumption ability and the shift in their consumption habits towards choosing more cost-effective Asian tires are expected to further open up the potential demand space for the replacement tire market, and the demand for replacement tires is expected to continue to grow by 2025. In addition, the downstream demand for automobiles is expected to improve in 2025, especially for new energy vehicles. Encouraged by relevant domestic policies, it is expected that demand will continue to steadily increase. There is a strong need for support for butadiene rubber.

Under the influence of the above factors, it is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in 2025, but the high point of the year will decrease compared to 2024.