This week (1.11-1.17), the dichloromethane market is running weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 17th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2675 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 5.39%; On January 14th, the average price reached a low point of 2662 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 7.25% from the 11th.

As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand has significantly weakened, on-site operating load has increased, and enterprise inventory is under significant pressure. Production enterprises are offering discounts for sales, resulting in a wide range of price reductions. Downstream order taking enthusiasm has increased, but due to the reduction of logistics vehicles, enterprise outbound has slowed down, which may pose an upward resistance to dichloromethane. On January 17th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2640-2680 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The starting load this week remains stable compared to last week. The following is the operation status of the enterprise’s methane chloride unit:

Cost wise: As the end of the year approaches, shipments of methanol and liquid chlorine are under pressure. The liquid chlorine market is declining, and the methanol market is fluctuating and weakening. On January 16th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% from the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Due to factors such as low production in various industries before the Spring Festival and holiday arrangements, the demand for procurement has weakened. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the tight supply of goods supports the firm operation of prices, waiting for resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival.

Business analysts believe that the cost situation is weak, the demand side has reduced production, and the supply side inventory is under pressure. It is expected that the short-term market for dichloromethane will be limited.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the price of lead 1 # was 16590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the lead price of 16810 yuan/ton on January 1st.

This week’s market analysis

Due to the early stocking at the end of last month, which squeezed the demand for January, it was difficult for terminal demand to be transmitted upwards. The weakening of downstream demand will make it difficult for lead prices to maintain high levels, resulting in an overall downward trend in lead prices in the first half of this month.

Native end

The expansion of raw material procurement channels for primary lead refineries has not led to a strong willingness to increase quotations. Under the influence of significantly improved raw material inventory and the pursuit of comprehensive recycling profits, production constraints have weakened. However, there are still maintenance during the Spring Festival, and monthly supply has decreased compared to the previous period.

Regeneration end

The supply gap of used batteries has existed for a long time, coupled with the low number of scrapped batteries in winter and the increased demand for inventory in recycled lead refineries during the Spring Festival, prices are expected to stabilize. The impact of winter on production in the north, shrinking profits, some refineries undergoing Spring Festival maintenance, and environmental disturbances still pose uncertainties, resulting in a significant month on month decrease in the production of recycled lead.

Demand side

The consumption of lead-acid batteries has recovered to some extent, but dealers have stocked up due to the previous drop in lead prices. Moreover, this winter is relatively warm, and the improvement in stocking demand before the Spring Festival may be limited. There is a possibility of seasonal decline in the operating rate of enterprises in the second half of the month. However, based on recent policy statements, the continuation of the trade in policy and the expansion of subsidies are expected to improve the consumption of lead-acid batteries in the medium to long term.

comprehensive analysis

As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an increase in maintenance of primary and recycled lead refineries, while the environmental interference rate is relatively high, resulting in reduced pressure on the supply side. The demand for lead-acid battery companies has fallen seasonally, but the expectation of stocking up before the Spring Festival provides some support. Both supply and demand are weak, and the trend of lead prices is not driven enough. It is expected that the low-level range of lead prices will mainly fluctuate in January.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On January 16th, the average market price was 7511.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market continues to strengthen and consolidate. The significant decrease in the number of arrivals at ports in East China has boosted the market, leading to an increase in the price of pure benzene. The prices in Shandong’s local refining market have fluctuated, with most enterprises focusing on stability. International crude oil futures have risen, and the price of pure benzene in foreign markets has increased. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is good. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

The warm cost dominates the price trend. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fluctuated and adjusted upwards in January. As of January 14th, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 7276 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.10% from the beginning of the month.

The US Treasury Department has imposed comprehensive sanctions on a European country’s oil industry, intensifying market concerns about disruptions in its oil supply. International crude oil prices have risen sharply. As of January 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.50 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.92 per barrel.

The PTA spot market followed the rise of crude oil, with the average PTA market price in East China at 4996 yuan/ton as of January 14th, up 4.30% from the beginning of the month. In terms of self supply, Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton PTA plant underwent maintenance on December 12th and will restart on January 13th, 2025. Rolex’s 1.25 million tons will undergo maintenance around January 13th. The current spot market supply is still sufficient, and the industry operating rate is around 81%.

In addition, the decline in self supply has also had a greater impact on the driving force of polyester staple fiber. Recently, there has been a reduction in production and an increase in maintenance of polyester staple fiber equipment, resulting in a gradual contraction of supply liquidity.

There is no significant increase in terminal orders, and the main focus is on essential procurement. The Spring Festival is approaching, and there are many holiday maintenance plans. The operating rate of terminal looms has dropped to around 63%, and the stocking phase has ended.

Business analysts believe that the short-term cost increase dominates the polyester staple fiber market, but its sustainability is highly uncertain, so further upward space is limited.

Sinopec East China’s listing price will increase by 100 yuan/ton, with an execution of 6050 yuan/ton, while Sinopec North China’s listing price will increase by 100 yuan/ton, with an execution of 6150 yuan/ton. The port inventory has significantly decreased to 23000 tons, and the rise in raw materials has driven a positive attitude among traders. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the negotiated price reference in the East China market is 6000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from yesterday.

Raw materials are supported by rising prices, spot circulation sources are tightening, petrochemical companies are raising their listing prices in a concentrated manner, traders have a positive attitude, and offers are rapidly rising. Expected to operate at a high level in the short term.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on January 13th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 6000./ 100

Shandong region/ 6050./ 50

Yanshan region/ 6050./ 50

South China region/ 6050./ 50