This week (2.1-2.8), the nickel market continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the upward trend of nickel prices continued after the holiday. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on February 8th, spot nickel was reported at 128700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.36%.

Macro level: The game between China and the United States has increased, and China has imposed 10% -15% tariffs on some US goods. The United States has postponed the imposition of import tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, easing concerns about tariffs and boosting the weak US dollar, leading to a continued rise in nickel prices.

Supply side: The Philippine Senate has approved the ban on raw ore exports. If the bill is officially implemented, the Philippines may ban nickel ore exports in five years, causing market concerns to ferment.

The surplus of pure nickel continues, and domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate. On February 7th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29465 tons, an increase of 1199 tons during the week; On February 7th, LME nickel inventory was 175710 tons, an increase of 3408 tons for the week.

Demand side: The atmosphere of the Spring Festival has not yet ended, and downstream work is gradually resuming, so the market activity is slightly lacking. After the holiday, the price of stainless steel slightly increased, and stainless steel continued to accumulate inventory, causing the market to fluctuate at a low level.

Market forecast: Macro and emotional factors continue to affect price trends, and post holiday market trading heat also needs to improve. Supply surplus and inventory pressure are expected, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the low range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has slightly decreased after the holiday. As of February 6th, the domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 79200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% from 79780 yuan/ton before the holiday. The price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 78200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% from 76600 yuan/ton before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm for purchasing and inquiring in the spot trading market has cooled down, and the pre holiday purchasing frenzy has overdrawn short-term demand after the holiday.

From the downstream demand side, the production of positive electrode material factories within the festival is relatively stable, driving the demand for replenishment of materials and lithium salts after the festival.

Due to the resumption of production in the mining salt sector of a leading enterprise, it provides a strong supplement to the domestic production of lithium carbonate and also supports the customer supply level of some material factories. Under this influence, most companies are currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude and making few purchases.

In terms of imports, Chile exported 25600 tons of lithium carbonate in January, an increase of 27.5% compared to the previous month. Among them, 19100 tons were exported to China, an increase of 43% compared to the previous period. Considering its shipping cycle, it is expected to arrive at Chinese ports in February or March.

From the supply side perspective, most lithium carbonate smelting enterprises collectively maintained normal production during the Spring Festival, but there are still 10 enterprises planning maintenance, mainly concentrated in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hebei, Guangdong and other places. The overall market supply is sufficient.

The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that the weak price trend during the Spring Festival period is normal due to the dual impact of maintenance and demand, and there will not be significant fluctuations in the short term in the future. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic epoxy propane market experienced a weak decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.62% compared to the beginning of this month (8100.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: The production of epichlorohydrin has increased, and some factories are facing inventory pressure, resulting in a slight decrease in prices.

Raw material end: The market for liquid chloropropene on the raw material end is temporarily stable. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 4th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6798.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: After the holiday, downstream urgent replenishment is the main focus, with limited new orders and sluggish actual market transactions. It is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the demand for epichlorohydrin in the near future.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that with the restart and recovery of enterprise equipment, epoxy propane production has increased, and some factories are under pressure from inventory. Downstream demand side procurement is cautious and lacks follow-up, and there is a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly consolidate weakly, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 24th, the average price of acetic acid was 2950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared to the acetic acid price of 3030 yuan/ton on January 20th, a decrease of 2.64%, and a decrease of 0.67% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market has been running weakly, with fluctuating quotes from companies. On the supply side, the utilization rate of domestic production capacity remains high, factory inventory is under pressure, and downstream pre holiday stocking is gradually coming to an end. The enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened, and the trading atmosphere in the market is light. Among them, shipments in Shandong and North China regions are poor, and the transaction center of the acetic acid market has shifted downwards.

As of January 24th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On January 20th/ On January 24th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 2865 yuan/ton/ 2835 yuan/ton/ -30

Shandong region/ 2910 yuan/ton/ 2860 yuan/ton/ -50

Jiangsu region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2800 yuan/ton/ +25

Zhejiang region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream methanol market is consolidating weakly. From January 20th to 24th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2659 yuan/ton to 2635 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.90%. The domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. Downstream pre holiday stocking was poor, market buying was weak, production enterprises offered more discounts for shipments, methanol prices continued to decline, and later external prices remained stable. Negative factors weakened, and domestic methanol market prices rebounded slightly.

The downstream acetic anhydride market saw a slight increase, with an average ex factory price of 5097.50 yuan/ton on January 24th, an increase of 0.30% compared to the price of 5082.50 yuan/ton on January 20th. The upstream acetic acid market is fluctuating, with average cost of acetic anhydride. Downstream pre holiday stocking is still acceptable, and the market trading atmosphere is good. Acetic anhydride prices are consolidating and rising.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the current utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is high, the market supply is sufficient, and downstream purchases before and after the holiday have been basically completed. Actual transactions are limited, and the market mentality is mainly wait-and-see. Under the performance of supply and demand, it is expected that the acetic acid market will be weakly consolidated after the holiday, and downstream follow-up will be closely monitored in the future.

This week (1.18-1.24), the nickel market did not continue its upward trend and was under pressure to decline. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on January 24th, spot nickel was reported at 124516 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.53%.

Macro level: On January 21st, Trump stated that the US government is discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China starting from February 1st, and previously stated that a 25% tariff may be imposed on Mexico and Canada starting from February 1st. It also promised to impose tariffs on European imported goods, but did not provide more details. The US dollar index remains above 108, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals.

Supply side: The Secretary General of APNI Indonesia stated that the total approved nickel ore mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for 2025 is 298.49 million tons. Currently, Indonesia’s nickel ore production accounts for 63% of the global total, which will lead to oversupply in the global nickel market. Regarding the previously discussed issue of reducing production, it was stated that the production cuts may be targeted at newly established enterprises. The Indonesian government is not implementing a significant contraction in the supply side, and the pattern of nickel surplus is difficult to change.

The surplus of pure nickel continues, and domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate. On January 24th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 28320 tons, an increase of 762 tons during the week; On January 23rd, LME nickel inventory was 173064 tons, an increase of 5070 tons during the week.

On the demand side: At the end of the year, the market trading heat gradually weakened, demand weakened, stainless steel continued to accumulate inventory, and the market fluctuated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work after the holiday.

Market forecast: oversupply, inventory pressure, weakened demand during the Spring Festival, and expected nickel prices to fluctuate in the low range.