In recent times, the domestic ABS market has continued to be negative, with most brand spot prices being lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 12150 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.61% from the price level on May 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: The load of the domestic ABS industry has increased due to the improvement of the profitability of aggregation enterprises in the early stage. Recently, the average operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises has continued to increase, currently reaching around 65%. The production has increased synchronously, and the supply of goods on site has also increased accordingly. And there are still expectations for improvement in the future, with supply side support for ABS spot gradually weakening.

Cost factor: Recently, the trend of ABS upstream materials has generally weakened, with concentrated resumption of acrylonitrile maintenance equipment and lagging downstream consumption follow-up, resulting in a certain supply-demand contradiction in the market. The current acrylonitrile market is bearish.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been weak. There is a trend of supply relaxation, while downstream demand remains unchanged. The external market prices continue to weaken, and the news of low-priced transactions stimulates the domestic market, resulting in low buyer inquiry intentions. The mentality of merchants is gradually becoming empty, and the market is consolidating its weakness.

Recently, the styrene market has stopped falling and rebounded. The strong trend of upstream pure benzene provides support for the styrene market. Although the market demand is mainly for basic needs, there are some production line maintenance plans in the future, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. It is expected that styrene will continue to strengthen consolidation in the future due to factors such as cost.

In terms of demand: The main terminal demand for ABS has not improved, and the overall load of downstream factories is generally stable, with stocking operations mainly focused on buying in demand. Traders are flexible in their orders, leading to an increase in low-end market offers and a decrease in the speed of goods circulation. The market momentum is weakening, and the demand side is not providing enough support for the market.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, domestic ABS prices have been weak. From a fundamental perspective, the center of gravity of the upstream three materials of ABS is falling, which weakens the cost support for ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant has significantly increased, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. On the demand side, the demand for goods is weak, and the support for spot goods is not good. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market may experience a weak downward trend in the short term.

The market price of hexafluoropropylene remains stable. The follow-up of downstream inquiries and procurement is average, and the transaction atmosphere is average. According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 20th, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in Shengyishe was 35875.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend has remained stable, with slightly lower production of hydrofluoric acid units. There are still units waiting for market shutdown on site, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased. The production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 20th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Business Society was 11740.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% compared to the beginning of this month (11620.00 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite market continues to rise. As of May 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe fluorite was 3793.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.23% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

The downstream market is relatively quiet, with poor demand, and the focus is on purchasing for essential needs.

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that due to the recent high cost support of hexafluoropropylene, downstream market demand is poor, and on-demand procurement is affected. It is expected that the hexafluoropropylene market will operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

In mid to early May, the price of ethylene glycol was relatively weak

In May, the price of ethylene glycol was weak, and this week the price began to stabilize. According to data from Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4436.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% compared to the average price of 4481.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on May 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4630 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4350 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer spot prices of 4400-4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

Fundamental logic of recent decline and stabilization

In early May, there was news of the resumption of overseas equipment trading in the market, with abundant expectations for overseas import growth. Coupled with a downward shift in downstream polyester production rates, demand expectations weakened, and market sentiment was low.

At present, the price of ethylene glycol has started to stabilize, mainly due to changes in the news. There have been production cuts and supply contraction in the overseas Middle East and North America, and the forecast for arrival at the port has decreased, breaking the previous expectation of import increment; In addition, the domestic ethylene plant maintains a low operating rate, and the production of synthetic gas continues to decline. This has also brought certain benefits to the domestic supply side. The latest domestic production data for April 2024 shows that the ethylene glycol production was 1.3875 million tons, a decrease of 214500 tons compared to the previous month.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate have stopped rising and falling this week. On May 16th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 106800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the average price of 109200 yuan/ton on May 12th. On May 16th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 113000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.75% compared to the average price of 116200 yuan/ton on May 12th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot market for lithium carbonate has shown a weak decline this week. In terms of supply, the current domestic production of lithium carbonate continues to increase from April to May. The production in April was approximately 52500 tons, an increase of 23% compared to the previous month. In addition, the synchronous increase in the amount of imported lithium carbonate has led to a significant increase in the supply of lithium carbonate. In a state of relatively sufficient market supply, although lithium salt production enterprises are still relatively conservative in individual unit prices, they have slightly lowered their prices in response to market sentiment, and some traders have also simultaneously lowered their prices.

In terms of demand, at the beginning of the week, some downstream positive electrode companies made a small amount of bulk purchases due to price fluctuations, resulting in an increase in market trading volume. However, some downstream enterprises still do not have the willingness to replenish spot inventory due to their sufficient lithium carbonate inventory, increased customer supply, and stable long-term cooperation. In addition, the market is relatively bearish on short-term prices, and it is still in a wait-and-see situation at present.

The market situation of lithium hydroxide is mainly stable, and the price of spodumene concentrate has recently decreased narrowly. This week, the price of lithium carbonate is weak and downward, with weak cost support. Large factories mainly deliver long-term orders, and the performance of the new energy and energy storage market is still good. Downstream ternary enterprises mainly consume inventory on the demand side, and high nickel demand is average. The market transaction atmosphere is flat, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is stable but weak.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable with a weak trend. The upstream price of iron phosphate remains mainly stable, while the price of lithium carbonate has declined. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is average, but downstream demand is poor. The current trend of lithium iron phosphate has been maintained, and the price fluctuation range is limited. Therefore, it is mainly a wait-and-see approach.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures has been declining for several consecutive days this week, and has slightly rebounded towards the weekend. On May 16th, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 103800 yuan/ton, the closing price was 104000 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 104950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39%. The transaction volume was 100700 lots and the position was 197287 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, with both domestic production and overseas imports of lithium carbonate increasing, the inventory of lithium carbonate in the market is still relatively high. With the downward trend of prices, the market trading volume has increased, but the focus of transaction prices still has a slight downward trend. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will still have a bearish trend.

In late May, the domestic market for isooctyl acrylate showed a month on month improvement, with the main trend fluctuating. As of May 15th, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 12750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.99% compared to the beginning of this month (12625.00 yuan/ton). Due to the significant increase in domestic equipment maintenance and overseas exports, the market supply of isooctyl acrylate is significantly tight, with an overall preference for quantity and price.

Supply side:

The domestic orders for raw materials for isooctanol have been well followed up, with the main focus on pending orders and on-demand procurement. Most factories have maintained high load operations, and overall isooctanol has maintained a high level of upward trend. As of May 15th, the benchmark price of isooctanol in Shengyishe was 9850.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to the beginning of this month (9660.00 yuan/ton).

As of May 15th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in the domestic raw material market was 6925.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). The acrylic acid market is supported by expectations of recent shutdown and maintenance of individual production units. Production companies have made strong offers, while holding manufacturers have seen their prices rise. The focus of trading on the market has fluctuated, and downstream markets have average enthusiasm for receiving goods. The market may continue to consolidate and operate, with primary demand supporting the market.

Demand side:

The SAP industry’s demand performance is relatively warm, providing strong support for the market. Due to differences in product structure, there are differences in stocking in different regions, and market confidence is steadily recovering. The market maintains a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, and follow-up on actual transactions is needed.

The water reducing agent market is operating steadily with a weak trend, and holding manufacturers are maintaining high reports and low operations. Business owners have a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and downstream inquiries have increased enthusiasm. The willingness to accept goods is not strong, so pay attention to changes in the news.

Overall

In the near future, the market for isooctyl acrylate may show strong performance, with demand gradually improving by the end of May and supply-demand contradictions gradually calming down. Business Society analysts predict that a strong price increase is a necessary condition for a rapid increase in apparent demand, and the market price of isooctyl acrylate will fluctuate around 12500-12800 yuan/ton next week.