Recently (2.11-2.23), the market for butadiene rubber has been weak and slightly declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 11th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.57% from 14830 yuan/ton on the 11th. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The production of butadiene rubber remains low, and the pressure on the supply side is relatively small; After the holiday, downstream construction gradually increased, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have been gradually lowered, and the quotes from merchants have been weak and declining. As of February 23, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14200-14550 yuan/ton.

Recently (2.11-2.23), the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly. Recently, due to the expected increase in butadiene supply, downstream inventory, and low production of synthetic rubber, the downward trend in butadiene prices has intensified. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 23, the price of butadiene was 11587 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.31% from 12637 yuan/ton on the 11th.

Recently (2.11-2.23), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has remained at a low level, with overall construction around 6.10%.

Demand side: Downstream tire production will increase after the holiday, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber market. As of February 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.7% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate weakly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; Post holiday downstream construction will increase; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and overall, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will consolidate in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8258 yuan/ton on February 14th and 8261 yuan/ton on February 20th, with a price increase of 0.04% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10083 yuan/ton on February 14th and 10183 yuan/ton on February 20th, with a price increase of 0.99% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8375 yuan/ton on February 14th and 8412 yuan/ton on February 20th, with a price increase of 0.45% during this period.

Recently, polyethylene has shown a strong trend of oscillation, but the upward potential is limited. On the cost side, the market is concerned that local supply may continue to tighten in the short term, and coupled with the difficulty of significantly increasing US crude oil production, international oil prices have continued to rise, providing some support for the polyethylene market on the cost side. The pressure on the supply side is still present, with stable deployment of new production capacity in the early stages, and plastic companies resuming work and production after the holiday, leading to increased market expectations; During this period (February 14-20), the domestic polyethylene plant suffered a maintenance loss of approximately 67200 tons, an increase of 12300 tons compared to the same period last week. In late February to March, spring plastic film enters the traditional peak season, with orders constantly accumulating, but the demand for greenhouse film enters the off-season. The upcoming National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference are expected to boost demand in the commodity market, and the polyethylene market is poised for a small spring.

The pressure on the supply side is still there, and the demand for plastic film may be supported. The macro level is relatively warm, and it is expected that the upward space for polyethylene will be limited.

The price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell in February

In February 2025, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4711.67 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the average price of ethylene glycol on February 1st.

Recently, the accumulation of ethylene glycol at ports has been significant, suppressing spot prices. Contract traders have weak trading, while receiving traders are cautious and afraid of high prices. They do not receive many goods, and market trading is average. The contract basis quotation has moved downwards. This week’s contract basis quotation range is+19 to+21, February’s contract basis quotation range is+24 to+25, and March’s contract basis quotation range is+55 to+56.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of February 19th, the landed price in China is 547-550 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia is 560 US dollars/ton.

Reasons for the recent weakening of ethylene glycol prices

1. The arrival at the port has rebounded, and the accumulated inventory at the port is obvious. As of February 20th, the total inventory of ethylene glycol ports in the main ports of East China was 725600 tons, an increase of 107900 tons from 617700 tons on February 5th. This week, the delivery of goods from the main ports in East China was average, and the total inventory has rebounded. Among them, Zhangjiagang has 389600 tons, Taicang has 114000 tons, Ningbo has 81000 tons, Jiangyin and Changzhou have 91000 tons, and Shanghai and Changshu have 50000 tons. In terms of dock shipments: Zhangjiagang ships an average of 5300 tons per day within the week; The average daily shipment of two warehouses in Taicang is 4600 tons; Ningbo Port ships an average of 3000 tons per day.

2. Downstream terminals are gradually resuming production, mainly consuming excess inventory. The production of polyester may be affected by the operating rate of terminal demand, resulting in weak demand expectations.

Forecast for the future market of ethylene glycol

Demand side: after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), with the return of workers, the operating rate of the weaving industry factories has gradually increased, and the utilization rate of polyester capacity has continued to improve. With the increase in downstream polyester production, the demand for ethylene glycol will also correspondingly increase.

Supply side: Some domestic devices are undergoing maintenance, and the pressure on domestic supply has eased.

Cost side: Although international oil prices fluctuate, they still remain within a certain price range, which provides some support for the cost of ethylene glycol. Moreover, the recent slight increase in oil prices and the upward shift in cost support are also conducive to the recovery of ethylene glycol prices.

Overall, the price of ethylene glycol is prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, maintaining a volatile consolidation trend.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, in mid February, the domestic PC market continued the weak consolidation trend, and most spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 18th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16266.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.31% compared to early February.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In mid February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises roughly leveled off, with an industry average operating rate of around 80%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, with ample on-site supply and unchanged supply-demand imbalance. The inventory position is on the high side, and the on-site pricing continues to be at a low level. The market supply side is providing average support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above chart, the recent fluctuations and consolidation of the bisphenol A market have been the main trend, with slightly weaker price movements. Although the prices of upstream phenol and acetone have strengthened, the demand side for bisphenol A has not recovered well after the holiday, and the high prices of raw materials have actually increased the cost pressure of bisphenol A. Merchants often give up profits and take orders, resulting in a decrease in actual orders. The confidence of the industry is not strong, and overall the support for PC cost is average.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak in early February. The return of downstream factories during holidays is slow, and the load on end enterprises is not high. The terminal stocking intensity is average, and the purchasing logic is concentrated on weak demand, with some inventory still to be digested. The wait-and-see attitude of businesses is biased, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods, increasing the pressure for businesses to sell. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

In mid February, the domestic PC market continued to consolidate its weak trend. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations, with average support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is basically flat, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The industry’s inventory is high, and the supply pressure has not improved. At present, the recovery of downstream demand is still slow, and the situation of new orders is not good. It is expected that PC will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Last week (February 10-16, 2025), the adhesive short fiber market was consolidating and operating, with prices fluctuating slightly. As of February 16th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13720 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 0.44% compared to last week. The raw material main material dissolution slurry market is running steadily, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market and sulfuric acid market are both showing an upward trend, and the price center of the cost side market is rising; From the supply side, the supply of adhesive short fiber industry slightly decreased during the week, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers were at a low level. The favorable support from the supply side still exists; Downstream yarn manufacturers are still in the stage of resuming work one after another, and various yarn companies still have a certain amount of raw material inventory. The enthusiasm for replenishment is not high, and there has been no significant improvement on the demand side.

Overall, the price center of the upstream raw material market has shifted upward, with good support on the cost side. There is currently no inventory pressure in the market, and supply side support still exists. However, the downstream market mainly executes early orders, with limited replenishment demand. The overall market speed is average, and the price of adhesive short fiber market remains stable with small fluctuations, with a slight increase in average price.

In terms of cost: This week, the market price of raw material dissolution slurry continued to remain stable, the auxiliary material liquid alkali market continued to rise, the sulfuric acid market price rebounded after falling, the focus of raw material market prices increased, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers increased.

On the demand side: The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market is gradually increasing, and prices are being pushed up locally. The demand in the terminal market has not improved, and downstream yarn factories have resumed work one after another, mainly consuming raw material inventory, resulting in mediocre performance on the demand side.

Future forecast

On the raw material side, the market for adhesive short fiber main material dissolution slurry and auxiliary material sulfuric acid market or consolidation are the main markets, and there is an expectation of a decline in the price of liquid alkali market. Therefore, it is expected that the market price center of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will weaken. Supply and demand side: Most of the devices in the adhesive short fiber market are operating stably, and there is little fluctuation in on-site supply; The downstream yarn market or consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor, and the demand side is closely following. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, so it is expected that the driving force of the short-term adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be weak. Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may continue to maintain a stable trend, while the inventory level in the adhesive short fiber industry is not high. The downstream yarn market may still consume raw material inventory as the main source, and the trading activity in the market is average. Business analysis predicts that the domestic adhesive short fiber market for short fibers will not fluctuate much, with stability as the main factor, and prices are expected to be accepted at 13700-13850 yuan/ton.