According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of natural rubber in China has weakened recently (7.1-7.8). As of July 8th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.69% from 14557 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in domestic and foreign raw material production areas is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials has been falling all the way, causing cost drag on the domestic natural rubber market. As of July 8th, the price of Thai adhesive was 63.50 Thai baht/kg, a decrease from 70.45 Thai baht/kg at the end of June; As of the 8th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 13600 yuan/ton, significantly lower than 14500 yuan/ton at the end of June; The purchase price of all latex raw materials for glue production is around 13600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the end of June.

On the other hand, natural rubber inventories are slowly being depleted, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the overall market. As of July 7, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 493000 tons, a month on month decrease of 0.89%.

Downstream tire production is temporarily stable, with demand facing strong support from the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a high price drop in natural rubber prices. As of July 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.2%.

Market forecast: The current domestic and foreign raw material supply is gradually increasing, and the high price of natural rubber raw materials is falling back; In addition, downstream tire companies are currently operating steadily and are cautious in purchasing high priced goods; Overall, the natural rubber market is expected to narrow down in the short term after a recent high decline.

On July 5th, the National Grain and Oil Information Center reported that the Malaysian Palm Oil Authority will release monthly data on July 10th (next Wednesday). Currently, data from multiple market monitoring agencies shows that Malaysia’s palm oil production in July decreased by about 5% month on month, ending the previous three consecutive months of growth; The export volume has also slowed down compared to last month, with a decrease of 12% to 16% month on month. Based on feedback from the production area, it is expected that the palm oil storage in Malaysia will stabilize and slightly increase by the end of June, at around 1.8 million tons.

Sinopec’s East China phenol listing price has been lowered by 150 yuan, resulting in a reduction of 8200 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s North China phenol listing price has been lowered by 100 yuan, resulting in a reduction of 8200-8250 yuan/ton. Today, the phenol market continued to decline, with factories following the downward adjustment of listed prices. Looking at the market today, the East China region stopped falling, while the North China and Shandong regions continued to decline, while the South China region remained relatively stable.

On July 2nd, the quotations for phenol in various markets nationwide are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 8150./ 0

Shandong region/ 8100./ -50

The surrounding areas of Yanshan/ 8100./ -50

South China region/ 8200./ -50

Analysis: This week (6.24-28), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 0.56%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown a loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea conversion by manufacturers, the increase in ammonia production has dragged down the price of ammonia. During the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by less than 100 yuan/ton. Dealers tend to lower their shipments. Moreover, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is gradually entering the off-season, industrial demand remains strong, and the demand side is generally bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2800-3000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, agricultural demand procurement has slowed down, industrial demand has followed closely, and supply is sufficient. However, some manufacturers have maintenance rumors, and it is expected that supply will be tightened in the later stage. The possibility of a price rebound for liquid ammonia cannot be ruled out.

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market declined in June. On June 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16366.67 yuan/ton yuan/ton, and on June 27th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15850 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 3.16%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market continued to be weak in June. After the price reduction of Dragon Enterprises in the early days, prices of other enterprises followed the adjustment, and the titanium dioxide market was weak and downward. Overall, the market’s order taking situation remains weak in the middle of the month, with cautious procurement and a focus on just in need purchases. In the latter half of the year, the titanium dioxide market remained weak, and due to the rise in sulfuric acid prices, titanium ore was operating at a high level, putting pressure on the titanium dioxide market. As of now, most domestic sulfuric acid based rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15300 and 16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15300 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Internationally, the situation of foreign trade exports is still acceptable. Currently, the European Commission has released the disclosure of facts before the preliminary judgment, but the final judgment result has not yet been known. The market is mostly cautious and wait-and-see. According to incomplete statistics, international titanium dioxide manufacturers such as Comus, Konos, Fannengtuo, Teno, and Shiyuan have successively issued price increase notices. Starting from July 1, 2024, the price of Komo titanium dioxide increased by $100/ton, the price of Konos titanium dioxide increased by $200/ton, the price of Fannengtuo titanium dioxide increased by $100/ton, the price of Teno titanium dioxide increased by $100/ton, and the price of Shiyuan titanium dioxide increased by $200/ton.

On a macro level, the initial draft of the European Commission’s anti-dumping duty on Chinese titanium dioxide on June 13th showed plans to impose tariffs of up to 39.7% on Longbai Group and its subsidiaries, 14.4% on Jinxing Titanium Industry (CNNC Titanium), and 39.7% on other Chinese titanium dioxide companies. At present, the specific final ruling result has not been released yet, and the degree of impact still depends on the final ruling result. Currently, the market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

According to customs data, in May 2024, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 149300 tons, a decrease of 5.14% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 3.22%; In May, the export of titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid method reached 126300 tons, a month on month increase of 0.85%; In May, the export of titanium dioxide produced by chlorination was 23000 tons, a decrease of 28.48% compared to the previous month. From January to May 2024, China exported approximately 796200 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year increase of 12.04%, and the export volume increased by approximately 85600 tons.

In May 2024, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China was 9082.03 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.94% and a month on month increase of 34.12%; In May, the import of titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid method was 2194.52 tons, a decrease of 27.33% compared to the previous month; In May, the import of chlorinated titanium dioxide reached 6887.52 tons, an increase of 83.60% compared to the previous month. From January to May 2024, China imported approximately 40100 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 59.67% compared to the same period last year, and the import volume increased by approximately 15000 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region weakened in May. The production of titanium ore is basically stable, but the supply of raw ore is tight. However, the market for downstream titanium dioxide enterprises continues to be weak, with cautious trading in the titanium concentrate market and strong pressure on prices. They are resistant to high priced titanium concentrates, and upstream and downstream trading is mostly wait-and-see, resulting in a relatively stagnant market situation. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium concentrate is around 1530-1550 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2200-2230 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate is mainly stable, and the specific actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

According to customs data, in May 2024, China imported 421900 tons of titanium ore, an increase of 2.26% year-on-year and 28.42% month on month, with a monthly average price of 290.98 US dollars per ton; From January to May 2024, China imported approximately 1.9254 million tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 3.38%, and the import volume increased by approximately 62900 tons.

In May 2024, China exported 13321.20 tons of titanium ore, an increase of 785.95% year-on-year and 96.52% month on month; From January to May 2024, China exported approximately 35100 tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 158.46%, and the export volume increased by approximately 21500 tons.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices increased in June. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid in China was 247.5 yuan/ton on June 1st, and 260 yuan/ton on June 27th. The monthly price has increased by 5.05%. Some acid plants in certain regions are still under maintenance this month, with a tight supply of sulfuric acid and a slight increase in prices; The recent increase in raw material sulfur prices has provided support for the cost of sulfuric acid. In the short term, the sulfuric acid market remains strong, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that this month, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region first fell and then stabilized, and the sulfuric acid market price increased, resulting in increased cost pressure on titanium dioxide in the later period. The downstream market demand continues to be weak, and the market trading situation is light. Transactions are cautious and cautious, and titanium dioxide enterprises are under greater pressure to ship. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be weak and stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated based on downstream market demand.