1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7766.67 yuan/ton. The cyclohexane market is mainly balanced in supply and demand, with insufficient downstream demand and a narrow and weak overall market operation. Currently, the mainstream market price remains around 7800 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Currently, the overall market is running steadily, with insufficient support from the upstream cost side and excessive inventory pressure. Currently, there is a boost in some equipment news in the pure benzene market, and short-term consolidation of the pure benzene range in East China.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that cost support is poor. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable in the short term.

In February 2025, the price center of the adhesive short fiber market will increase. As of February 28th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13720 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.18%. The upstream raw material market prices remain firm, with cost support remaining. The inventory level in the market is not high, and coupled with the increasing operating load of downstream yarn factories, businesses have sufficient confidence in the future. Some adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their prices, resulting in an increase in high priced sources in the market and a rise in the monthly average price of adhesive short fiber.

In terms of cost: In February, the market price of the main raw material for adhesive short fibers, dissolved pulp, was high. Due to the continued tight situation of the South American rainy season or export restrictions in Southeast Asia, the price of dissolved pulp may remain high, supporting the cost of adhesive short fibers. The market price of auxiliary liquid alkali has risen at a high level, while the market price of sulfuric acid has fallen narrowly. The market price of raw materials has shifted upwards, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers has increased.

Supply and demand: From the supply side perspective, February 2025 falls around the Spring Festival, and the pre holiday stocking and post holiday resumption pace of domestic textile factories will directly affect short-term demand. In February, there was little fluctuation in the supply of adhesive short fibers in the market, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers were not high. There was no sales pressure at the moment, and the supply side provided some upward momentum for the market. The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market is not high, and prices are mainly stagnant. Downstream yarn manufacturers plan to resume work slightly later. Although adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their quotes and increased on-site inquiries, actual transactions are limited and demand side performance is poor.

Market forecast:

The main material dissolution slurry market and auxiliary material liquid alkali market have strong prices, while the high cost of adhesive short fibers remains stable. In the short term, the adhesive short fiber market is expected to operate stably, with little fluctuation in industry supply and low inventory levels on site, and there is currently no significant inventory pressure. March is the traditional peak season for textiles, and downstream yarn mills may release their demand for replenishing inventory in a concentrated manner. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will be strong in March, with prices remaining stable and fluctuating, mainly rising. Prices are expected to be around 13700-14000 yuan/ton for acceptance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has experienced a decline followed by an increase since February, with an overall upward trend. As of February 27th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17132 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% from 16840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 17400 yuan/ton, and the low point was 16510 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, downstream production remained low, and demand faced insufficient support from natural rubber, resulting in a slight decrease in natural rubber prices; On the one hand, downstream production has increased in the later stage, and on the other hand, the supply of raw materials in the market is tight and prices remain high, driving the overall upward trend of natural rubber.

Since February, the main rubber production areas overseas have gradually stopped cutting, with Vietnam’s production areas approaching a complete shutdown. The southern and northeastern regions of Thailand account for about 50-60% of the shutdown area. In addition, the domestic natural rubber production areas are in a shutdown period. In February, the high and firm prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad have provided some support for natural rubber prices. As of February 26th, the price of Thai glue was 70.50 baht/kg, an increase of 4.44% from 67.50 baht/kg at the beginning of February.

The natural rubber inventory increased slightly in February, which had a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of February 23, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 575600 tons, an increase of 7000 tons compared to the previous period.

Since mid to late February, downstream tire production has gradually increased, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of February 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.7% of the load.

Market forecast: Currently, there is an increase in the cessation of cutting in domestic and foreign raw material production areas, and the price of natural rubber raw materials remains high, which provides some support for natural rubber; With the gradual increase in downstream production after the holiday, there is a certain degree of rigid demand support for natural rubber, but the high inventory of Tianjiao Port still has a certain negative impact on the Tianjiao market; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience strong fluctuations at high levels in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market had a narrow range of fluctuations and consolidation at the end of February, with some brand products experiencing mixed price fluctuations. As of February 26th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.56% compared to the price level at the beginning of February.

price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of remote upstream crude oil, in mid month, the United States imposed tariffs and Trump requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices, while US crude oil inventories remained high. At the end of the month, with the easing of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, market concerns about crude oil demand have expanded. The price of crude oil is suppressed by various factors, and the rate of change remains negative. The propylene sector is in a downward trend due to previous high prices and weakened upstream, while the propane sector lacks active guidance. Overall, the PP raw material market was weak at the end of February, providing moderate support for PP costs.

Supply side:

At the end of February, the load of domestic PP enterprises remained stable with a slight decrease, and the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has slightly decreased by 2% to 77% compared to mid month, and the domestic weekly average production has dropped to around 730000 tons. Recently, there has been no production capacity landing, and the previously accumulated discharge pressure from new devices is gradually being digested. The maintenance and resumption of work of PP equipment in the future are mutually apparent, and from the results, it is expected that there will be a narrow relaxation trend in shipment volume. The supply side’s support for PP spot prices is expected to remain stable with small fluctuations.

In terms of demand:

At the end of February, the demand for PP remained generally stable, continuing the previous weak level. Although there was no significant increase in production in the field, enterprises gradually resumed work after the holiday, and the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice showed a trend of recovery. The inventory of plastic woven enterprises was partially digested. Expected to expand the stocking potential of the buyer camp. Overall, the demand side is showing a positive trend.

Future forecast

At the end of February, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated narrowly and consolidated. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is poor, industry supply is expected to level off, there is a trend of recovery in consumption, and market momentum has the potential to rise. But in the short term, the bullish momentum is not strong, and the market lacks momentum. It is expected that the PP price market will continue to consolidate.

At the end of February, the domestic ABS market consolidation was weak, and the spot prices of some grades were narrowly lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11762.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.95% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: At the end of February, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained almost unchanged, and the load rate continued to be around 72% from mid month. The average weekly output remains close to 130000 tons, while the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has accumulated close to 190000 tons. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. There has been no improvement in orders for petrochemical plants, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery, resulting in a higher incidence of discounted orders. Overall, the recent supply side has provided poor support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: At the end of February, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was weak, and the overall support for ABS cost side was average. The domestic supply of acrylonitrile is gradually increasing, while domestic demand and exports remain slow overall. The prominent contradiction between supply and demand has led to a continuous decline in market prices. However, there is uncertainty in the supply side in March, and the uncertain expectations have to some extent suppressed the recent downward trend of acrylonitrile.

Recently, the butadiene market has experienced a relatively wide decline. At the end of the month, industry production capacity returned and supply expectations increased. At the same time, the synthetic rubber futures market weakened, and downstream demand was weak. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the market is under pressure to decline. The prices of the holders have been lowered one after another. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance in the future market, and industry players generally have a bearish sentiment. It is expected that the market trend may continue to be weak.

At the end of February, the styrene market was mainly weak and consolidated. Recently, the load of styrene industry facilities has increased, and the market supply has increased due to the relaxation of supply and demand. Upstream pure benzene prices have fallen due to poor shipments from Eastern refining companies. The bullish trend in the early stage of styrene is gradually being digested, and the stagnant market is entering consolidation.

On the demand side: The terminal side continues the previous flat pattern, and there is no improvement in downstream buying at the end of the month. The current resumption process of terminal factories is lagging behind, and the overall load position is slowly recovering. At the same time, terminal enterprises still have inventory to digest, and the atmosphere of on-site procurement is sluggish, resulting in slow flow of goods. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.

Future forecast

At the end of February, the domestic ABS market experienced a narrow decline. The overall consolidation of the upstream three materials is weak, and the comprehensive support for ABS cost side is average. The load of ABS polymerization plant has remained basically unchanged, and the accumulated inventory has risen at a high level. The demand side expansion is still insufficient, and some downstream enterprises are slow to return to production. Business analysts believe that the ABS market has strong supply and weak demand, and in the short term, the market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation.