1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% from the reference average price of 1881 yuan/ton on December 6th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have slightly adjusted and fallen. As of December 12th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1760-1790 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1785 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1800 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1885 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, both supply and demand in the urea market have been weak. On the supply side, there has been a decrease in urea market supply this week, but there is still a significant amount of inventory in the market. In terms of demand, downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, market transactions are sluggish, and the trading atmosphere is not good.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has recently undergone a narrow adjustment. At present, there is no positive support in the market, and the market adopts a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the stable consolidation and operation of domestic urea market prices will be the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 11th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9162 yuan/ton. On December 1st, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 212 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.37%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early December, the domestic cyclohexanone market experienced an upward trend, with prices continuously approaching high levels and low prices gradually disappearing from the market. As of December 11th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong, China is around 9100-9200 yuan/ton, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Inner Mongolia is around 9050-9100 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for cyclohexanone in South China is around 9300-9400 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost: Recently, the market for pure benzene, the upstream raw material of cyclohexanone, has steadily risen, providing increasing cost support for cyclohexanone. The cyclohexanone market has also continued to rise with the increase in raw materials.

In terms of supply and demand: As we enter December, the supply side of cyclohexanone is relatively tight, and there is less pressure on spot supply. Downstream demand is mainly for essential purchases. The overall transmission of supply and demand in the cyclohexanone market is relatively smooth.

In terms of upstream pure benzene: Entering December, the overall market situation of upstream pure benzene is on the rise. On December 10th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7586.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% compared to December 1st (7338.00 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and some downstream companies have a wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw materials. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (12.2-12.6), with an average market price of 242190 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 243700 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62%.

Recently, the tin price range has fluctuated slightly and increased. The current macroeconomic situation has a complex impact on tin prices, and paying attention to the policy attitude and ideas of the Central Economic Work Conference may have an impact on market sentiment. The impact of the shutdown of upstream Myanmar tin mines has not yet been transmitted to the smelting end, but considering that the supply of raw materials from the mining end is still biased towards demand.

Fundamentally, Indonesia currently exports more tin ingots to China, but domestic tin ore supply is further tightening. On the tin consumption side, automobile and household appliances maintain a high growth rate, but the overall demand’s support for tin prices is not yet significant. The social inventory of Shanghai tin has dropped to 6920 tons, a new low for the year. The inventory changes further highlight the tight supply in the current tin market, which has provided some support for tin prices.

Overall analysis shows that tin prices are currently in a short-term period of consolidation and bottoming out. Supported by factors such as a decrease in inventory and a rebound in spot market trading, tin prices are expected to continue to rebound. But the lack of consumer motivation affects the rebound momentum.

This week (December 2-6, 2024), downstream demand is limited, and the trend of the adhesive short fiber market remains stable. The market price of the main raw material dissolved slurry in the upstream remains stable and firm, with low inventory levels in the market. There is resistance from the downstream market, and demand for purchasing is limited. Under the game of positive and negative factors, the market price of adhesive short fibers has temporarily stabilized and consolidated.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the domestic factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13820 yuan/ton, and the price continues to remain stable.

In terms of cost: This week (December 2-6, 2024), the market price of adhesive short fiber raw material dissolution slurry remained stable, while the market price of auxiliary liquid alkali continued to decline. The market price of sulfuric acid continued to rise, and the market price of raw materials fluctuated. The average production cost of adhesive short fiber decreased.

On the supply side, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained at around 84.9% this week, with a slight decrease in production compared to last week. During the week, some adhesive short fibers in Shandong region were parked for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply.

In terms of inventory, the supply of adhesive short fibers in the market has decreased, but due to the end of previous orders, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and the speed of on-site shipment has slowed down, resulting in a narrow increase in inventory levels.

On the demand side: The downstream cotton yarn market has poor delivery speed and price stagnation is the main issue. Downstream yarn factories are facing a shortage of new orders, resulting in a continuous accumulation of finished product inventory and a low enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials. They are holding onto essential orders from multiple sources.

Future forecast

The main material dissolution slurry market is expected to continue its strong trend, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid markets are expected to consolidate within a certain range, resulting in average cost support. Due to equipment maintenance by some manufacturers, the supply of adhesive short fiber industry may still decrease, and market inventory may continue to be low, resulting in less pressure on on-site inventory; The demand in the terminal market has not improved significantly, and there is an increasing trend in the inventory level of yarn enterprises. Business analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic adhesive short fiber market will experience a slight weak consolidation, with prices expected to be between 13700-13900 yuan/ton.

In late November, the domestic liquid ammonia market mainly fluctuated and fell, breaking out of a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, liquid ammonia recorded a decline of 0.48% in the second half of the year.

Since the end of the month, liquid ammonia has reversed the downward trend in the middle of the month. The prices of manufacturers have been steadily rising, and the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers has significantly declined, especially in the northern main production areas where ammonia emissions are generally low. The urea plant in Shandong is operating normally, with some parts transitioning to urea production and a significant reduction in ammonia release. In addition, some facilities in Anhui, Shanxi, and Northeast China have not yet started production, resulting in tight market demand for ammonia. In addition, some facilities in Shandong have also undergone short-term maintenance due to malfunctions. The supply has not been followed up yet. The ex factory price of liquid ammonia has naturally increased several times. Shandong manufacturers have generally raised prices 2-3 times within the week, with a cumulative increase of over 100 yuan/ton. The market performance is in short supply.

Towards the end of the month, in the last week of November, the market experienced a general decline, with prices in Shandong dropping from 2800 yuan to around 2600 yuan in the latter half of the month. In addition, the northwest and Inner Mongolia have also experienced declines along with the downturns in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and other regions. Due to increased supply pressure, there is a significant increase in the conversion of liquid ammonia in regions such as Shandong and Hebei, leading to an increase in the potential for ammonia production. In addition, most of the facilities in Central China, Northwest China, and other regions have been operating steadily, while new production capacity in Ningxia has been gradually released. The increase in supply has led to manufacturers accumulating inventory, forcing them to lower prices for shipments.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that from the supply side, under the expectation of equipment maintenance, the supply pressure in the main production areas of the north will gradually ease, and there is a high possibility of a later decline. In addition, as winter enters, the increase in rain and snow weather in the north may limit short-term supply, and local supply-demand imbalances may lead to an increase in price differences.

From the demand side perspective, the early replenishment is gradually coming to an end, agricultural demand is gradually falling, and industrial demand is maintaining rigid demand. This may pose a constraint on ammonia prices in the future. However, considering that imports are still at a low level, a reasonable balance between supply and demand should be maintained in the short term.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to stabilize and stop falling in the near future. In the short term, due to the easing of supply pressure, there may still be room for price surges. However, under the expectation of weak demand during the winter off-season, the supply-demand game will intensify, and the ammonia market may experience fluctuations.