According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market experienced a slight decline today (December 26), with mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions generally lowering prices by 50 yuan/ton. The average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm was 7168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous trading day.

From the perspective of raw materials, geopolitical concerns, despite the unstable demand outlook, still limit the upward space due to the expectation of crude oil surplus. As of December 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.58 per barrel. PX factories mainly focus on maintaining normal production, with sufficient domestic PX spot supply and high inventory background unchanged. In addition, with the approaching Christmas holiday, participants’ cautious trading mentality has increased.

Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend, but the increase has narrowed compared to the previous period. As of December 25th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4831 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to December 18th. In terms of supply, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant will shut down on December 9th, and Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton PTA plant will undergo maintenance on December 12th, with an unspecified restart date. Dushan Energy’s new 2.7 million ton unit will start production on December 20th, and we will pay attention to the subsequent increase in load. From the perspective of the fourth quarter, there were not many overall maintenance of PTA plants, and the industry’s current operating rate is stable at around 86%, with an expected accumulation of inventory.

Downstream yarn factories mainly focus on stabilizing prices and shipping. Currently, the market price of pure polyester yarn T32S in Fujian is between 11300-11800 yuan/ton; The market price of pure polyester yarn T32S in Fujian is between 11300-11800 yuan/ton. Cotton mills have less inventory, and due to weak confidence in the future market in some downstream areas, the market transaction atmosphere is light, so they mainly adopt small order rigid demand procurement for short fibers. The overall demand is weak, and most downstream companies choose to stop work to reduce burden. The enthusiasm for starting work is low, and the operating rate of the weaving machine industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined to below 67%.

Business analysts believe that the crude oil market continues to fluctuate, and with the production of qualified products from new PTA capacity, the PTA market will have sufficient supply in the future, with average cost support. Downstream demand remains high, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market lacks substantial positive drivers, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 825 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 826 yuan/ton on December 25th. The market price of ammonium sulfate has increased by 0.20% this month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the market price of ammonium sulfate first fell and then rose. The operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased this month, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises remains high. In early December, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices fluctuated and fell. Downstream demand has weakened, purchasing intentions are not strong, market confidence is insufficient, and the transaction price of ammonium sulfate market has fallen. The international market for ammonium sulfate is mainly weak. In mid to late December, domestic ammonium sulfate prices showed a strong upward trend. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, with an increase in inquiries and market trading volume. The bidding price for coking grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased, while the price for domestic grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased. As of December 25th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 765 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-860 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from September 30, 2024 to December 16, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. The price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated in December, with the largest increase of 0.61% in the week of December 16th and the largest decrease of -0.8% in the week of December 2nd.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been stabilizing and consolidating recently. Downstream on-demand procurement, on-site trading is still acceptable, and market demand remains. There is currently no significant improvement in the export market. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience price consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1828 yuan/ton, which is 1.26% lower than the reference average price of 1851 yuan/ton on December 17th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have weakened and fallen. As of December 24th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1680-1720 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1730 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1710 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1720-1740 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1810 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, urea supply has been relatively loose this week, and market inventory has increased. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a focus on low-priced purchases. At present, the market trading volume is still acceptable, but the trading atmosphere needs to be improved.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been weak and consolidating recently. At present, there is no significant improvement in the supply and demand side, and there is no positive support in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market prices will remain stable with a weak trend.

Analysis: Last week (12.16-20), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong remained sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.57%. The main reason for the increasing supply pressure is that the operating rate of the equipment is generally high, and the operating rate of manufacturers has increased. Coupled with the sluggish urea market, some manufacturers have switched to ammonia, which has further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by around 100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2570-2700 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The market has entered the off-season for fertilizer procurement, with a significant decrease in downstream operating rates, industrial demand following suit, sufficient supply, and the problem of oversupply in the later stage may continue. However, there may be regional differentiation in the later stage of the market. On the one hand, the operating rate will decline with the decrease of prices, and it is not ruled out that there may be pricing issues for enterprises. In addition, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places may put pressure on transportation, and there may be a shortage of local supply. Considering all factors, liquid ammonia will remain at a low level and fluctuate mainly next week, and it is difficult to have good performance in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 20th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6850-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7300-7500 yuan/ton, with local price increases.

In terms of cost: Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has seen a slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 19th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4809 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.85% compared to December 9th. The escalation of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine has prompted the United States to announce a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at its December meeting and may postpone it until the second quarter of next year, which is positive news for international oil prices. However, the weak demand in the international crude oil market and investors’ concerns about the prospect of oversupply in the crude oil market still exist, which is bearish for the oil market. As of December 20th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.91 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.88 per barrel.

In terms of supply and demand, the market price of polyester filament has shown a fluctuating downward trend since the third quarter, with a slight increase in the second week of December. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, manufacturers have started to offer discounts on shipments this month, resulting in an increase in the production and sales rate of polyester filament and a significant decrease in inventory. After a wave of promotions in mid December, the price of polyester filament has risen narrowly this week. On the other hand, low inventory has boosted the confidence of manufacturers and increased the enthusiasm of enterprises to raise prices. In addition, the improvement of the raw material supply environment and the narrow rise in prices have given a certain boost to the polyester filament market.

According to analysts from Shengyi Society, with the recent seasonal increase in foreign trade orders and increased purchasing efforts by end-users, the production and sales of polyester factories have significantly increased, greatly alleviating inventory pressure. Overall, it is expected that the polyester filament market will show a fluctuating trend, and may maintain a strong trend before the Spring Festival, with price fluctuations possibly between 50-100 yuan/ton.