Price trend: first suppressed and then rose, with severe fluctuations within the month
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, nickel prices showed a “V-shaped” rebound in April. At the beginning of the month, nickel prices hit a bottom due to the impact of the US tariff policy towards China. On April 9th, spot electrolytic nickel fell to a four-year low of 120875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.22%. Subsequently, due to the disturbance of Indonesian policies and the recovery of macro sentiment, nickel prices stopped falling and rebounded. At the end of the month, nickel prices were 125033 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of 4.03%.
analysis of influencing factors
1. Macro emotions dominate short-term fluctuations
The impact of tariff game: At the beginning of the month, the United States announced the imposition of “equivalent tariffs” on Chinese goods, and China responded by imposing a 34% tariff on imported goods from the United States, triggering panic selling in the non-ferrous sector.
Policy expectation easing: Trump’s tariff easing statement coupled with the Fed’s dovish signal has led to a rebound in market risk appetite, but the rebound in nickel prices is weak due to weak fundamentals.
2. Supply pressure continues to suppress prices
Indonesian policy disturbance: Indonesia’s PNBP policy came into effect on April 26th, and the expected increase in nickel mining costs supports nickel prices, but the actual implementation strength remains to be observed.
The increase in imported ore is significant: the rainy season in the Philippines has basically ended, and the import volume of nickel ore in March increased by 34% month on month to 1.5352 million tons, easing the short-term supply shortage, but still slightly decreased by 0.45% year-on-year.
High inventory is difficult to digest: On April 28th, overseas LME nickel inventory was 201426 tons, an increase of 2706 tons during the month. The domestic inventory of Shanghai nickel is 24632 tons, although it has slightly decreased by 2114 tons, the global explicit inventory is still at a historical high.
New high production: In March, the domestic refined nickel production reached 36700 tons (+12% year-on-year), and it is expected to further increase production in April. The pattern of oversupply has not changed.
3. Insufficient resilience on the demand side
Stainless steel drag: The off-season of terminal consumption combined with export policy restrictions resulted in a 4.75% monthly drop in stainless steel prices, and weak demand for nickel from steel mills.
Electroplating alloy stability maintenance: Purchasing at low prices supports some essential needs, but it is difficult to offset the weakness in the stainless steel field.
The demand for new energy (ternary batteries) is expected to improve in the long term, but the short-term driving force is limited.
Outlook for the future: Bottom up under the oscillation of supply and demand game
Nickel continues to have an oversupply pattern, with prominent supply-demand contradictions and upward pressure on prices. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range of 125000-130000 yuan/ton in May, and special attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesian policies, the progress of stainless steel destocking, and macro policy trends.
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