Uncertainty of tariff policy: Copper prices first fell and then rose in April

1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then rose in April. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 80023.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price slightly fell to 78158.33 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.33% and a year-on-year decline of 2.31%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in April were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later, and the expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fluctuated and decreased in April. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 203450 tons, a decrease of 4.61% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the shift in Trump’s tariff policy has triggered a chain reaction in the market, and the easing of trade tensions has cooled the controversy over the independence of the Federal Reserve. However, the Beige Book warns that tariff uncertainty still threatens the regional economic outlook. The Markit data for April showed that the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded (50.7), while the service and composite PMI were lower than expected but still in the expansion range, and the current macro uncertainty continues.
Supply side: The import volume of copper ore sand and concentrate in March was 2393926.47 tons, an increase of 9.67% month on month and 2.80% year-on-year. The import volume of scrap copper (copper scrap) in China in March 2025 was 189722.465 tons, a decrease of 1.87% month on month and 13.01% year-on-year. The import volume of refined copper in China in March 2025 was 354275.469 tons, an increase of 16.11% month on month and 11.80% year-on-year.
The Antamina copper zinc mine accident in Peru has raised supply concerns. As one of the world’s largest copper zinc mines, the mine produces over 400000 tons of copper annually, accounting for a significant proportion of China’s imported copper mines.
Downstream: Household air conditioning production in March increased by 16% year-on-year. State Grid’s power grid investment in the first quarter increased by 27.7% year-on-year. In March, passenger cars continued to show a good trend, with both production and sales increasing on a month on month basis, reaching 2.5745 million and 2.4682 million units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.43% and 10.37%, respectively. In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to maintain rapid growth, with a month on month increase in market penetration rate, reaching 1.277 million and 1.237 million units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.93%+ 40.11%.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly fallen in May.
In summary, the sudden major accident at Antamira, the largest copper mine in Peru, has led to a complete shutdown, coupled with the continuous decline of domestic concentrate TC to below -30 US dollars, increasing pressure on refineries to reduce production. The resilience of domestic demand still exists, and the peak season for power grid delivery and the trade in policy are driving demand for air conditioning and battery foil; The recent rebound in spot consumption has driven the continuous depletion of electrolytic copper inventory, but as the traditional peak season draws to a close, photovoltaic installation orders may decrease, coupled with uncertainty in tariff policies, and upward pressure on copper prices is gradually emerging.