Market Overview
This week (4.9-4.17), the dichloromethane market in Shandong continued to operate weakly, with a light trading atmosphere and an unstable market focus. Affected by the continuous weakness of the demand side, production enterprises have a strong willingness to ship, and bidding sales have become the mainstream strategy.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 17th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.1% during the week.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Partial negative reduction, overall supply is still relatively loose
Device dynamics: Some methane chloride units in Shandong have gradually recovered after maintenance, but some enterprises still maintain reduced load operation. The overall operating rate of the industry fluctuates around 75%, and the supply is relatively stable.
Enterprise inventory: Although inventory pressure is not high, due to weak demand, the enterprise still focuses on destocking, and some manufacturers offer small discounts on shipments.
Cost side: Weakening prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine
Methanol: Due to the bearish macro sentiment and weak downstream demand, methanol prices continue to decline. As of April 17th, the spot price of methanol in Shandong was reported at 2450 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.43%, which weakened the cost support for dichloromethane.
Liquid chlorine: This week, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has significantly decreased, further weakening the cost support of dichloromethane.
On the demand side: rigid procurement is the main focus, and market trading is sluggish
Downstream industries (such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, pesticide intermediates, etc.) have low purchasing enthusiasm and mainly rely on replenishment for essential needs, resulting in weak market transactions. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, with some low-priced goods circulating, but overall transaction volume is limited.
Future prospects
In the short term, the dichloromethane market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation pattern, with the main influencing factors including:
Supply side: If the enterprise continues to reduce its burden or increase maintenance, or forms a certain support for prices.
Cost side: If the prices of methanol and liquid chlorine continue to decline, the cost support for dichloromethane may continue to loosen.
On the demand side: If there is no significant rebound in downstream demand, the market will still be under pressure.
It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the trend of raw materials and changes in enterprise production.
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