The price center of the adhesive short fiber market will shift downwards in the first quarter of 2025. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the average price of the domestic adhesive short fiber market was 13600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton or 1.59% from the beginning of January.
Price trend in the first quarter
At the beginning of the season, although the main raw material dissolution slurry market was running smoothly and the inventory of the adhesive short fiber industry was not high, the demand in the end market was weak, and downstream yarn factories had limited new orders. Negative factors dominated the market, and adhesive short fiber manufacturers lowered their quotations one after another. The new round of order volume in the market remained until February, and subsequent adhesive short fiber manufacturers mainly delivered orders, resulting in a continued weak and stable trend in market prices.
Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, the auxiliary materials sulfuric acid market and liquid alkali market continued to rise in price, with good cost support. Various adhesive short fiber manufacturers increased their delivery speed before the holiday, causing inventory levels to decline to a low level. The supply side performed well, and downstream yarn factories resumed work one after another, with expectations of increased demand for adhesive short fibers. Industry players have a strong sentiment of raising prices, and there has been an increase in high priced goods in the market. After a narrow rise in adhesive short fiber market prices, stable operation has been maintained.
Until mid March, due to the continuous decline of the main raw material dissolution slurry market in the first quarter, the cost side support was weak, and downstream yarn manufacturers had insufficient new orders after the year, slowing down the speed of raw material delivery. The overall inventory level of adhesive short fibers continued to increase, and the actual focus of market negotiations shifted downwards, with weak consolidation as the main trend.
Supply and demand analysis
In the first quarter of 2025, the operating load of adhesive short fiber market facilities in Xinjiang will gradually increase, adhesive short fiber facilities in Shandong will resume full load operation, and a factory in Jiangsu will expand production of adhesive short fiber facilities; However, another adhesive short fiber factory in Jiangsu province stopped for maintenance in late January and the equipment has not yet restarted. At the end of the season, some units in the factory underwent routine maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply compared to the previous quarter.
In the first quarter of 2025, the demand side of the adhesive short fiber market showed weak performance. At the beginning of the season, the market is in a traditional off-season for demand, and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching. Downstream yarn factories are holding onto their essential needs and signing orders. The on-site stocking volume is as high as the end of February, but it has decreased compared to the same period last year; Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, cotton yarn manufacturers have resumed work one after another, but new orders from the end market are limited, resulting in poor shipments from yarn factories and reduced enthusiasm for purchasing adhesive short fibers. The signing volume in March was not ideal, and the demand side dragged down the market trend.
The increase in industry supply and sustained weak demand have led to a significant increase in overall market inventory.
Minor increase in costs
In the first quarter of 2025, the market price of domestically produced dissolving slurry will decline in a tiered manner, with an average price of 7748 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 1.63%; The price center of the liquid alkali market has risen, with an average price of 1044 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 5.14%; The market price of sulfuric acid has significantly increased, with an average price of 433 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 18.96%. Overall, the average production cost of viscose staple fiber has slightly increased, and the market price of viscose staple fiber continues to decline. The profitability of the viscose staple fiber industry is not optimistic.
Future forecast
On the cost side, there may be no significant fluctuations in industry supply, and the downstream adhesive short fiber market equipment start-up rate may remain high. However, the increase in inventory may reduce the purchase of raw materials, and the positive support from the demand side is limited. Therefore, it is expected that the dissolution slurry market prices will operate weakly and steadily in the second quarter.
Supply side: Some adhesive short fiber units in Shandong region have maintenance plans in mid April, while a certain adhesive short fiber manufacturer in Jiangsu region has expansion plans. The industry supply has both increased and decreased, and it is expected that there will be little change in market supply in the second quarter.
On the demand side: There is currently no significant increase in orders in the terminal market. In April, the tourist cotton yarn market may maintain the demand for signing orders. May and June are the transition period from the traditional peak season to the off-season, and the demand side is unlikely to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side in the adhesive short fiber market will be weak in the next quarter.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may have limited support, and the supply of adhesive short fiber market may remain high. There is no sign of improvement in downstream market demand, and industry players lack confidence in the future market. Business Society analysis predicts that the adhesive short fiber market prices will continue to operate weakly in the second quarter, with prices possibly experiencing a slight decline of 100-400 yuan/ton.
| http://www.sulfamic-acid.com |