According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has experienced a decline followed by an increase since February, with an overall upward trend. As of February 27th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17132 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% from 16840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 17400 yuan/ton, and the low point was 16510 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, downstream production remained low, and demand faced insufficient support from natural rubber, resulting in a slight decrease in natural rubber prices; On the one hand, downstream production has increased in the later stage, and on the other hand, the supply of raw materials in the market is tight and prices remain high, driving the overall upward trend of natural rubber.
Since February, the main rubber production areas overseas have gradually stopped cutting, with Vietnam’s production areas approaching a complete shutdown. The southern and northeastern regions of Thailand account for about 50-60% of the shutdown area. In addition, the domestic natural rubber production areas are in a shutdown period. In February, the high and firm prices of natural rubber raw materials at home and abroad have provided some support for natural rubber prices. As of February 26th, the price of Thai glue was 70.50 baht/kg, an increase of 4.44% from 67.50 baht/kg at the beginning of February.
The natural rubber inventory increased slightly in February, which had a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of February 23, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 575600 tons, an increase of 7000 tons compared to the previous period.
Since mid to late February, downstream tire production has gradually increased, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of February 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.7% of the load.
Market forecast: Currently, there is an increase in the cessation of cutting in domestic and foreign raw material production areas, and the price of natural rubber raw materials remains high, which provides some support for natural rubber; With the gradual increase in downstream production after the holiday, there is a certain degree of rigid demand support for natural rubber, but the high inventory of Tianjiao Port still has a certain negative impact on the Tianjiao market; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience strong fluctuations at high levels in the short term.
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