At the end of February, the domestic ABS market consolidation was weak, and the spot prices of some grades were narrowly lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11762.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.95% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: At the end of February, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained almost unchanged, and the load rate continued to be around 72% from mid month. The average weekly output remains close to 130000 tons, while the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has accumulated close to 190000 tons. The overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged. There has been no improvement in orders for petrochemical plants, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery, resulting in a higher incidence of discounted orders. Overall, the recent supply side has provided poor support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: At the end of February, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was weak, and the overall support for ABS cost side was average. The domestic supply of acrylonitrile is gradually increasing, while domestic demand and exports remain slow overall. The prominent contradiction between supply and demand has led to a continuous decline in market prices. However, there is uncertainty in the supply side in March, and the uncertain expectations have to some extent suppressed the recent downward trend of acrylonitrile.
Recently, the butadiene market has experienced a relatively wide decline. At the end of the month, industry production capacity returned and supply expectations increased. At the same time, the synthetic rubber futures market weakened, and downstream demand was weak. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the market is under pressure to decline. The prices of the holders have been lowered one after another. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance in the future market, and industry players generally have a bearish sentiment. It is expected that the market trend may continue to be weak.
At the end of February, the styrene market was mainly weak and consolidated. Recently, the load of styrene industry facilities has increased, and the market supply has increased due to the relaxation of supply and demand. Upstream pure benzene prices have fallen due to poor shipments from Eastern refining companies. The bullish trend in the early stage of styrene is gradually being digested, and the stagnant market is entering consolidation.
On the demand side: The terminal side continues the previous flat pattern, and there is no improvement in downstream buying at the end of the month. The current resumption process of terminal factories is lagging behind, and the overall load position is slowly recovering. At the same time, terminal enterprises still have inventory to digest, and the atmosphere of on-site procurement is sluggish, resulting in slow flow of goods. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
At the end of February, the domestic ABS market experienced a narrow decline. The overall consolidation of the upstream three materials is weak, and the comprehensive support for ABS cost side is average. The load of ABS polymerization plant has remained basically unchanged, and the accumulated inventory has risen at a high level. The demand side expansion is still insufficient, and some downstream enterprises are slow to return to production. Business analysts believe that the ABS market has strong supply and weak demand, and in the short term, the market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation.
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