The price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell in February
In February 2025, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4711.67 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the average price of ethylene glycol on February 1st.
Recently, the accumulation of ethylene glycol at ports has been significant, suppressing spot prices. Contract traders have weak trading, while receiving traders are cautious and afraid of high prices. They do not receive many goods, and market trading is average. The contract basis quotation has moved downwards. This week’s contract basis quotation range is+19 to+21, February’s contract basis quotation range is+24 to+25, and March’s contract basis quotation range is+55 to+56.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of February 19th, the landed price in China is 547-550 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia is 560 US dollars/ton.
Reasons for the recent weakening of ethylene glycol prices
1. The arrival at the port has rebounded, and the accumulated inventory at the port is obvious. As of February 20th, the total inventory of ethylene glycol ports in the main ports of East China was 725600 tons, an increase of 107900 tons from 617700 tons on February 5th. This week, the delivery of goods from the main ports in East China was average, and the total inventory has rebounded. Among them, Zhangjiagang has 389600 tons, Taicang has 114000 tons, Ningbo has 81000 tons, Jiangyin and Changzhou have 91000 tons, and Shanghai and Changshu have 50000 tons. In terms of dock shipments: Zhangjiagang ships an average of 5300 tons per day within the week; The average daily shipment of two warehouses in Taicang is 4600 tons; Ningbo Port ships an average of 3000 tons per day.
2. Downstream terminals are gradually resuming production, mainly consuming excess inventory. The production of polyester may be affected by the operating rate of terminal demand, resulting in weak demand expectations.
Forecast for the future market of ethylene glycol
Demand side: after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), with the return of workers, the operating rate of the weaving industry factories has gradually increased, and the utilization rate of polyester capacity has continued to improve. With the increase in downstream polyester production, the demand for ethylene glycol will also correspondingly increase.
Supply side: Some domestic devices are undergoing maintenance, and the pressure on domestic supply has eased.
Cost side: Although international oil prices fluctuate, they still remain within a certain price range, which provides some support for the cost of ethylene glycol. Moreover, the recent slight increase in oil prices and the upward shift in cost support are also conducive to the recovery of ethylene glycol prices.
Overall, the price of ethylene glycol is prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, maintaining a volatile consolidation trend.
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