This week (2.1-2.8), the nickel market continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the upward trend of nickel prices continued after the holiday. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on February 8th, spot nickel was reported at 128700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.36%.
Macro level: The game between China and the United States has increased, and China has imposed 10% -15% tariffs on some US goods. The United States has postponed the imposition of import tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, easing concerns about tariffs and boosting the weak US dollar, leading to a continued rise in nickel prices.
Supply side: The Philippine Senate has approved the ban on raw ore exports. If the bill is officially implemented, the Philippines may ban nickel ore exports in five years, causing market concerns to ferment.
The surplus of pure nickel continues, and domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate. On February 7th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29465 tons, an increase of 1199 tons during the week; On February 7th, LME nickel inventory was 175710 tons, an increase of 3408 tons for the week.
Demand side: The atmosphere of the Spring Festival has not yet ended, and downstream work is gradually resuming, so the market activity is slightly lacking. After the holiday, the price of stainless steel slightly increased, and stainless steel continued to accumulate inventory, causing the market to fluctuate at a low level.
Market forecast: Macro and emotional factors continue to affect price trends, and post holiday market trading heat also needs to improve. Supply surplus and inventory pressure are expected, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the low range.
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