According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the price of lead 1 # was 16590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the lead price of 16810 yuan/ton on January 1st.
This week’s market analysis
Due to the early stocking at the end of last month, which squeezed the demand for January, it was difficult for terminal demand to be transmitted upwards. The weakening of downstream demand will make it difficult for lead prices to maintain high levels, resulting in an overall downward trend in lead prices in the first half of this month.
Native end
The expansion of raw material procurement channels for primary lead refineries has not led to a strong willingness to increase quotations. Under the influence of significantly improved raw material inventory and the pursuit of comprehensive recycling profits, production constraints have weakened. However, there are still maintenance during the Spring Festival, and monthly supply has decreased compared to the previous period.
Regeneration end
The supply gap of used batteries has existed for a long time, coupled with the low number of scrapped batteries in winter and the increased demand for inventory in recycled lead refineries during the Spring Festival, prices are expected to stabilize. The impact of winter on production in the north, shrinking profits, some refineries undergoing Spring Festival maintenance, and environmental disturbances still pose uncertainties, resulting in a significant month on month decrease in the production of recycled lead.
Demand side
The consumption of lead-acid batteries has recovered to some extent, but dealers have stocked up due to the previous drop in lead prices. Moreover, this winter is relatively warm, and the improvement in stocking demand before the Spring Festival may be limited. There is a possibility of seasonal decline in the operating rate of enterprises in the second half of the month. However, based on recent policy statements, the continuation of the trade in policy and the expansion of subsidies are expected to improve the consumption of lead-acid batteries in the medium to long term.
comprehensive analysis
As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an increase in maintenance of primary and recycled lead refineries, while the environmental interference rate is relatively high, resulting in reduced pressure on the supply side. The demand for lead-acid battery companies has fallen seasonally, but the expectation of stocking up before the Spring Festival provides some support. Both supply and demand are weak, and the trend of lead prices is not driven enough. It is expected that the low-level range of lead prices will mainly fluctuate in January.
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