The phthalic anhydride market will first rise and then fall in 2024
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6600 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 7662.50 yuan/ton on January 1st, with an overall decrease of 13.87%. The price of raw material ortho xylene first rose and then fell, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride was insufficient. In addition, the price of plasticizers fluctuated and fell, putting great pressure on the price of phthalic anhydride to decline; Plasticizer companies are operating at a high level, and the demand for phthalic anhydride procurement is active, which still supports the demand for phthalic anhydride.
Annual production capacity statistics of phthalic anhydride
From the production capacity statistics chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the production capacity of phthalic anhydride has been surplus for many years, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride is about 60%. The phthalic anhydride industry is facing significant supply-demand contradictions. Due to overcapacity, the situation of oversupply in the market has intensified, leading to a continuous decline in the price of phthalic anhydride.
In 2024, the price of raw material ortho benzene first rose and then fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of ortho xylene was 6700 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st, with an overall decrease of 11.84%. In 2024, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride will decline, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride will decrease, increasing the downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride. The weak adjustment of industrial naphthalene prices has led to a decrease in the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride. There is significant downward pressure on the overall cost of phthalic anhydride raw materials and the price of phthalic anhydride.
Demand side: Significant decline in DOP market in 2024
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the DOP price was 8226.25 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 31.97% compared to the DOP price of 12061.67 yuan/ton on January 1st. The price of plasticizer DOP will continue to decline in 2024. Although the price of plasticizer DOP briefly increased in April, May, September, and October due to the impact of peak and off peak seasons, the overall downward trend is difficult to change. In 2024, the supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain will be relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer DOP will decline, which is negative for the raw material phthalic anhydride market.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, the price of industrial naphthalene is weakly consolidating, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and there is significant pressure for the cost of phthalic anhydride to decline; In terms of supply and demand, oversupply of phthalic anhydride has become the norm, with limited support for its upward trend and significant downward pressure. Overall, there is significant pressure for cost reduction and oversupply, and it is expected that the phthalic anhydride market will experience a weak decline in the future.
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