Review of Acetic Acid Market in 2024
The domestic acetic acid market will continue to fluctuate in 2024, with overall prices falling weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of acetic acid at the end of the year was 2970 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from 3200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, with an overall decline of 7.19%. From the annual trend, the highest price of acetic acid was 3675 yuan/ton, appearing in mid August, and the lowest price was 2770 yuan/ton, appearing in early November, with a maximum amplitude of 24.63%.
From the monthly K-bar chart of acetic acid in 2024, the price fluctuated throughout the year, and the specific analysis can be divided into four stages:
Interval oscillation (January to June), frequent maintenance plans for acetic acid plants in the first half of the year, and most companies’ plant changes are relatively short, resulting in insufficient sustainability of positive news. In addition, downstream purchases are mainly long-term, and are not greatly affected by prices, which actually has a certain degree of suppression on the rise of acetic acid prices, leading to a decline in acetic acid prices after multiple increases.
Strong upward trend (mid July to mid August), during which there were many unexpected shutdowns of equipment and some maintenance delays, resulting in concentrated factory maintenance and a significant decline in the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity. The market supply was reduced, and downstream replenishment sentiment was strong, supporting the strong upward trend of acetic acid market prices.
Weakly bottoming out (late August to early November), with the recovery of maintenance equipment, the supply of acetic acid in the market has increased, and the supply-demand contradiction in the market has gradually emerged. Traders are eager to settle for safety, and the price of acetic acid continues to decline. However, downstream demand is not as expected, and the price decline does not decrease. Manufacturers’ shipments are hindered, inventory pressure increases, and the mentality of buying up and not buying down leads to a continuous bottoming out of acetic acid prices.
Narrow range upward trend (mid November to December), supply side news released again, with some facilities shutting down and reducing load, resulting in a slight decrease in capacity utilization rate, which brings certain benefits to the market. Although the on-site supply is still high, the phased reduction has also driven the recovery of acetic acid prices.
Outlook for 2025:
In terms of supply, driven by considerable profits, the production capacity of acetic acid will continue to increase in 2024, with a production capacity of 12 million tons within the year. The domestic supply performance is sufficient, and there are still plans to add new production capacity for acetic acid in the future. It is expected that 5.9 million tons will continue to be put into operation in 2025, and there may be overcapacity at that time. The expected price of acetic acid in 2025 is weak.
In terms of imports and exports, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the performance of China’s acetic acid import market in 2024 is relatively weak. From January to November, the cumulative import volume of acetic acid in China was 33200 tons, a decrease of 6800 tons compared to the same period last year; The cumulative export volume from January to November was about 1.0278 million tons, an increase of 269500 tons or 35.54% compared to the same period last year. Domestic acetic acid is running weakly, and the export market is increasing.
In terms of demand, new production capacity is planned to be put into operation for downstream products such as PTA, acetate esters, and vinyl acetate in 2025. There may be some favorable support on the demand side, but downstream digestion will mainly focus on long-term production, and follow-up needs to be monitored in the later stage.
Overall, the supply growth rate of acetic acid market in 2025 is significantly higher than the demand growth, and the supply-demand contradiction in the market continues. The price market continues to be weak and volatile. In the future, specific attention should be paid to the supply capacity allocation, export market, and downstream follow-up situation.
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