According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market experienced a slight decline today (December 26), with mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions generally lowering prices by 50 yuan/ton. The average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm was 7168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous trading day.
From the perspective of raw materials, geopolitical concerns, despite the unstable demand outlook, still limit the upward space due to the expectation of crude oil surplus. As of December 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.10 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.58 per barrel. PX factories mainly focus on maintaining normal production, with sufficient domestic PX spot supply and high inventory background unchanged. In addition, with the approaching Christmas holiday, participants’ cautious trading mentality has increased.
Recently, the domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend, but the increase has narrowed compared to the previous period. As of December 25th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4831 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to December 18th. In terms of supply, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million ton PTA plant will shut down on December 9th, and Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton PTA plant will undergo maintenance on December 12th, with an unspecified restart date. Dushan Energy’s new 2.7 million ton unit will start production on December 20th, and we will pay attention to the subsequent increase in load. From the perspective of the fourth quarter, there were not many overall maintenance of PTA plants, and the industry’s current operating rate is stable at around 86%, with an expected accumulation of inventory.
Downstream yarn factories mainly focus on stabilizing prices and shipping. Currently, the market price of pure polyester yarn T32S in Fujian is between 11300-11800 yuan/ton; The market price of pure polyester yarn T32S in Fujian is between 11300-11800 yuan/ton. Cotton mills have less inventory, and due to weak confidence in the future market in some downstream areas, the market transaction atmosphere is light, so they mainly adopt small order rigid demand procurement for short fibers. The overall demand is weak, and most downstream companies choose to stop work to reduce burden. The enthusiasm for starting work is low, and the operating rate of the weaving machine industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined to below 67%.
Business analysts believe that the crude oil market continues to fluctuate, and with the production of qualified products from new PTA capacity, the PTA market will have sufficient supply in the future, with average cost support. Downstream demand remains high, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market lacks substantial positive drivers, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will continue to decline.
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