Last week (November 18-24, 2024), the upstream main raw material market remained stable, with strong support from the cost side and low inventory levels in the market. Positive support from the supply side still exists, while downstream yarn factories have limited new orders and mostly purchase goods according to demand. Manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and with mixed news on the market, the price fluctuations in the adhesive short fiber market are not significant, and the market atmosphere is stable.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 24th, the domestic factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13820 yuan/ton, and the price continues to remain stable.
The focus of the raw material market remains stable, with good cost support
Last week (November 18-24, 2024), the market price of upstream main raw material dissolved pulp remained firm. As of November 24, the price of domestic dissolved pulp was around 7900 yuan/ton, the price of outer broad-leaved pulp was around 970 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp was around 1070 US dollars/ton. The price of auxiliary materials in the market is narrowly upward. As of now, the average price of 32% liquid caustic soda in China’s market is 1046.36 yuan/ton, which is roughly the same as the beginning of the month; The average market price of 98% acid is 359 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13% compared to the beginning of the month. Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market and auxiliary material liquid alkali market are consolidating at a high level, the sulfuric acid market is trending upwards, the price center of the raw material market has shifted upward, and the cost support of adhesive short fibers is good.
No inventory pressure
Last week (November 18-24, 2024), there was no significant fluctuation in the operating load of the adhesive short fiber market equipment, and the industry operating rate remained at around 85.8%. With orders from various manufacturers being delivered one after another, inventory levels continued to decline, and some models were under tight delivery. The supply side provided some upward momentum for the market.
Downstream demand
The downstream cotton yarn market mainly executes preliminary orders and operates with price consolidation. The demand in the terminal market has not improved significantly, and the downstream yarn market production capacity continues to increase. Although the demand for adhesive short fibers has increased, the shipment situation of yarn factories is not ideal, and prices lack upward momentum, making it difficult to provide certain favorable support for the adhesive short fiber market.
Future forecast
The upstream raw material market prices may remain firm and stable, with limited on-site supply and relatively stable cost support, resulting in low on-site inventory. The peak demand season in the terminal market has ended, and downstream yarn factories are facing a shortage of new orders, resulting in a low enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Yarn companies may focus on first-time purchases, so it is expected that the driving force for the adhesive short fiber market in the later stage will be average from the demand side. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will experience a slight consolidation in the short term, with prices expected to be between 13700-14000 yuan/ton.
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