Since mid November, the phenol market in mainstream regions across the country has been rising, with an average increase of around 300 yuan/ton. As of the 20th, the phenol market in East China has been quoted at 7900 yuan/ton. This upward trend is mainly due to the lack of replenishment of imported cargo, delayed arrival of domestic cargo at the port, and continuous shipment of goods. The market’s spot circulation resources are limited, and the average price within the month is high, which has boosted the sentiment of traders. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price on November 20th was 7887.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.54% since November.
The port inventory is low, and recently the inventory at Jiangyin Port has fluctuated between 10000 and 15000 tons. From the perspective of domestic trade, the average inventory arriving in Hengyang is 1 ship per week, so it is difficult to accumulate inventory in Hengyang. Changshu often directly connects with downstream production enterprises, with limited circulation, while Zhangjiagang has less inventory. After mid month, the shortage of spot resources and the high average contract price have become the main driving force for the upward trend.
The overall operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises has declined. Sinopec Mitsui and Qingdao Bay facilities have temporarily shut down, with a production level of 70-80%. In addition, Shandong Fuyu phenol has not yet been circulating in the market, and there is not much pressure on spot supply, which has become a favorable factor supporting supply side price increases. In the later stage, by the end of November, Changchun Chemical, Qingdao Bay, and Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone plants will resume operation. The operating level of domestic phenol ketone plants is expected to gradually increase. Although the supply has increased, the restarted plants will also be mostly matched with downstream bisphenol A production. It is expected that the short-term impact on spot supply will not be significant.
Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7850 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7800-7850 yuan/ton. As of the 20th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
On the demand side, with the continuous rise of phenol, terminal enterprises are mainly driven by rigid demand and cautious in chasing high prices, which constrains the demand side. The downstream bisphenol A spot market has remained lukewarm, with stable market offers and negotiations in the East China region at 8900-9100 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.
Business Society expects the phenol market to remain strong in the short term, with little pressure on spot supply. However, downstream companies are cautious about chasing high prices, and there is limited room for the market to continue rising.
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