According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market has been weak and adjusted since November. As of November 19th, the average market price in East China was 4797 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from the beginning of the month.
In terms of supply, PTA has started to accumulate inventory. According to statistics, the current social inventory is around 4.01 million tons, and maintenance facilities have been restarted one after another, increasing expectations of loose supply. The current industry operating rate is around 85%.
International crude oil prices have fallen sharply, providing downward support for PTA costs. As of November 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.17 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.30 per barrel. There is an expectation of further increase in PX supply in Asia, and the pressure on domestic PX inventory is rising. In recent years, negotiations for annual contracts have begun, and a cautious trading atmosphere is evident.
The current off-season for polyester demand has led to a decrease in rigid demand for PTA. With the end of the shopping festival, the terminal textile industry focuses on the urgent need for e-commerce orders, the clearance of raw fabric inventory, and the procurement of raw materials. Most manufacturers have reported that the order volume this year is lower than in previous years, and there is some support for domestic demand for thermal insulation fabrics. Considering the subsequent tariff issues for foreign trade orders, some orders are issued in advance but can only be processed on an average basis. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined to 76%.
Business analysts believe that with the end of the peak consumption season, demand will be weak in the future, and there is an expectation of weak supply and demand. Due to the weakening of cost support, it is expected that PTA prices will continue to decline in the short term.
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