Macro sentiment affects nickel price decline

This week (11.9-11.15), the nickel price market has been falling all the way. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, spot nickel was reported at 124666 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.68%.

 

At present, the situation of oversupply in the market continues, coupled with the influence of macro factors, prices are under pressure and declining. The market transaction situation has weakened compared to the middle of the week, and the bearish and wait-and-see sentiment has increased. Users’ urgent needs can be sustained, but the degree of shipment is uneven.

 

Macroscopically, the election sentiment of the new US president has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and the end of the nickel price rally. Due to concerns about the impact of the incoming US president’s trade policies on the Chinese economy, a major consumer of metals, the London market fell across the board, affecting the continuous expansion of the domestic nickel price decline.

 

Supply side: Foreign inventory continues to grow, domestic inventory growth pressure has eased, and the market supply exceeds demand situation continues. As of November 15th, the quantity of Shanghai nickel goods that meet the delivery quality is 30472 tons, a decrease of 744 tons from last Friday; On November 15th, LME nickel inventory was 154434 tons, an increase of 4098 tons from last Friday.

 

On the demand side, stainless steel saw a slight decline during the week. On November 15th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the beginning of the month. Due to weak demand performance, the inventory decline narrowed, and merchants tended to ship at low prices. Downstream customers maintained price pressure and made on-demand purchases, resulting in overall weak trading.

 

Market forecast: Inventory pressure and price resistance still exist, and we expect macroeconomic factors to improve. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

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