According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 1st to November 11th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12325 yuan/ton to 10937 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 11.26% during the period. This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and the downstream synthetic rubber futures market showed a weak trend, which had a weak impact on the spot market mentality. The downstream market had a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacked demand support. The butadiene market trend was weak this week, and Sinopec lowered it to 11000 yuan/ton. As of November 11th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region was 10900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1000 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.
Cost wise: As of the 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.38 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.87 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. There is a long short game, and overall, crude oil first rose and then fell during the cycle.
Supply side: The comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much recently, and the comprehensive operating rate of butadiene has not changed much.
Demand side: Recently (11.1-11.11), the market for butadiene rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 15030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% from 15580 yuan/ton on November 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production has slightly increased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of November 11th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14850~15250 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak, and port cargo sources have continued to accumulate, resulting in loose market supply. In terms of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been generally weak in recent times. Overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.
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