According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and declining since October. As of October 31, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16868 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.99% from 17942 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The weather in the main production areas of natural rubber continues to improve, and the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas is gradually increasing, resulting in a decline in natural rubber raw material prices. As of October 31st, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 baht/kg, a decrease of 11.54% from the price of 78.00 baht/kg at the end of September; The purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas in China is 17900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.76% from 18600 yuan/ton at the end of September.
Natural rubber inventory increased slightly at the end of the month, with a slightly bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of October 27, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 408200 tons, an increase of 5700 tons compared to the previous period and a slight decrease from 411800 tons at the end of September.
Since October, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of October 25th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.
Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply is increasing, and prices are falling; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, there is currently a significant cost disadvantage in the short term, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly experience range fluctuations in the near future.
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