In October 2024, the market trend of the upstream main raw material for adhesive short fiber dissolution slurry remained strong and stable, while the auxiliary material market continued to rise in price. The cost performance was good, and some sources of goods were tight and inventory was low. At the same time, downstream markets were concentrated in signing orders, and the flow of goods was stable. Market favorable factors dominated, and the market focus of the adhesive short fiber market shifted upward. The downstream cotton yarn market has a flat trading atmosphere, with prices rising narrowly with the raw material viscose staple fiber.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton or 1.32% from the beginning of the month, and an increase of 7.13% from the beginning of the year.
Cost side support remains firm and stable
The market price of the main raw material dissolution slurry on the upstream side remains firm and stable. As of the end of the month, the price of domestically produced dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of broad-leaved slurry on the outer side is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The prices of auxiliary materials in the market have both shown an upward trend. As of the end of the month, the average price of 32% liquid caustic soda in the domestic market was 917.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% compared to the beginning of the month; The average market price of 98% sulfuric acid is 331 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.16% compared to the beginning of the month. Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market has seen a narrow upward trend, while the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market and liquid alkali market have both shown an upward trend. The cost side support for the adhesive short fiber market has strengthened.
Low inventory level
Most of the adhesive short fiber market devices are operating stably, with high market supply and a daily operating rate of around 85.8% in the industry. Due to the increase in downstream demand, the overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market continues to decline, and some models in the market are experiencing tight shipments. The supply side still has positive support.
Demand side support is still limited
The trading atmosphere in the downstream cotton yarn market is flat, with prices rising narrowly. As of October 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% from the beginning of the month. Although the demand in the terminal market is still weak, the downstream vortex spinning market equipment continues to increase, and yarn mills are holding onto the demand for essential orders, resulting in an increase in demand for adhesive short fibers. However, the new round of orders in the market is still expected to last for about a month, with limited support from the demand side.
Future forecast
The upstream raw material market prices may continue to show a strong trend, while the on-site supply is tight. Downstream yarn factories are following up as needed, and the market has entered a new round of order delivery period. Many adhesive short fiber manufacturers are queuing up to ship, and coupled with the lack of significant improvement in the end market, it may be difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of adhesive short fiber will perform averagely in the later stage. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will maintain stable prices in the short term, with limited price fluctuations, and prices are expected to be between 13700-13900 yuan/ton.
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