According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, stainless steel prices first rose and then fell in October. As of the end of October, the spot price of stainless steel was 12728.57 yuan/ton, up 1.19% from 12578.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and down 5.96% year-on-year.
Entering October, stainless steel prices experienced a wave of increase. On the trading day before the National Day holiday, the main force of stainless steel futures increased by 3.61% in a single day. Subsequently, during the National Day holiday, nickel futures rose and maintained a high level of volatility, which had a strong overall driving effect on the stainless steel spot market. After the holiday, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the reluctance to sell has increased the market’s upward momentum. Driven by the successive announcement of domestic economic policies and the increase in steel prices, the market price has continued to rise. But with the high-level pullback of the futures market and the end of the post holiday replenishment of finished materials, the market is under pressure.
According to the annual price comparison chart of stainless steel by Business Society in the past five years, most of the stainless steel prices fell in November.
Supply and demand side
On the raw material side, customs data shows that the import volume of nickel iron in September was 737400 tons, an increase of 41.22% compared to the previous month. The import volume of nickel iron has increased significantly, which has put pressure on the domestic nickel supply side and may limit the continued strength of nickel iron prices in the future market.
On the supply side, in September, the crude steel production of 43 stainless steel plants nationwide was 3.2888 million tons, a decrease of 2.09% month on month. The production schedule for October was 3.244 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.36%. The decrease in crude steel production in September and October was mainly reflected in the 200 and 400 series, with little overall fluctuation in the production of the 300 series.
On the demand side, the failure to fulfill the peak season demand in September as scheduled and the delayed demand are also important driving forces for the strengthening of the spot market in October. As the overall replenishment pace of the post holiday market gradually comes to an end, there is an expectation of a weakened digestion of finished material sources in the later stage. In addition, with the gradual decrease in temperature, some outdoor demand is limited, especially in northern regions where outdoor engineering construction is affected, and there is room for a weakening of demand in the stainless steel aftermarket.
Stainless steel inventory
As of the end of the month, the total inventory of stainless steel was 103.09 tons, an increase of 1.13% compared to the beginning of the month, with both cold and hot rolling inventories rising.
In summary, November has entered a seasonal period of pressure, and the decline in demand for finished materials may further limit the purchasing enthusiasm of production enterprises. It is expected that stainless steel prices will be mainly under pressure in November.
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