Ethylene glycol prices fall in October
In October, ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, and after a rapid increase after the holiday, the sentiment subsided and the price gradually fell back. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 21st, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol in China was 4675 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.31% from September 26th.
On October 21, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4610-4660 yuan/ton. The spot contract basis for ethylene glycol at the port slightly increased during the day, but the market fell, resulting in a decrease in the actual contract spot transaction price. The spot price opened in the morning today, with a contract basis quotation of+42 to+45 for this week. The basis quotation slightly increased during the day, with little fluctuation. At noon, the basis quotation rose to+44 to+47 for this week, and at the end of November, the basis quotation was+49 to+50.
On October 21st, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4230-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On October 17, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $551/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $580/ton.
Port inventory rebounds
The explicit inventory data of port ethylene glycol is still at a relatively low level, but the number of offshore bidding goods has increased recently. The supply of goods in Taiwan, China Province of China and Malaysia has been transacted, and the supply of goods in South Korea will also be opened. The short-term arrival to the port has increased. As of October 21, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 605500 tons, up from 515200 tons on October 14, with a cumulative inventory of 90300 tons.
Domestic supply rebounds
On the supply side, due to the impact of price recovery factors in the early stage, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol began to recover, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in production.
Demand side: Downstream polyester load is high, and filament production maintains high operating load.
The downward cost support of crude oil is weak
Recently, international crude oil has continued to weaken, and the cost support for polyester grade ethylene glycol has weakened.
Future expectations
The previous surge in ethylene glycol prices was mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high for the year.
Recently, international crude oil prices have weakened and cost support has been weak. Coupled with the concentration of ports, inventory data has shown a short-term upward trend, and ethylene glycol prices have begun to fall.
The future price variables of ethylene glycol mainly depend on overseas supply and cost support, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
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