Aluminum prices first fell and then rose in mid to early September
Aluminum prices first fell and then rose in mid to early September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 19773.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% from the market average price of 19643.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).
On September 13, 2024, the spot price of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) for China Aluminum Corporation Limited is as follows: the external quotation for the East China market is 19760 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the South China market is 19660 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the Southwest market is 19710 yuan/ton, and the external quotation for the Central Plains market is 19750 yuan/ton.
Monthly aluminum inventory changes
In September, the inventory in the electrolytic aluminum plant area continued to decrease, with a significant decrease in social inventory and an overall downward shift in inventory.
As of September 12th, incomplete statistics show that the main electrolytic aluminum plant inventory in China is 47000 tons, compared to 53000 tons on August 29th, and 6000 tons have been unloaded;
As of September 12th, the mainstream social inventory of aluminum ingots in China is 728000 tons, which is lower than the main factory inventory of 803000 tons on August 29th, with 75000 tons sold out.
Reasons for the rebound of aluminum prices in mid September
On the macro news front, the resonance between China and the United States’ PMI is downward, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates still exists. As September 18th approaches, the trading expectation of the Federal Reserve’s news side is expected to rise.
2. The stock of raw material alumina is still tight, with low inventory and firm prices. The cost side is driving aluminum prices to improve.
Import and export news
On the 13th, the US government decided to significantly increase import tariffs on Chinese products, including raising tariffs on electric vehicles by 100% and imposing a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.
Future expectations
1. Changes in medium and long-term demand and export expectations. Mainly due to the pessimistic long-term expectations in the downstream market, partly due to the seasonal off-season of household appliances, and partly due to the significant pressure on real estate completion, the negative feedback effect of aluminum consumption is strong; More importantly, in terms of exports, the additional tariffs on new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may gradually be implemented, and photovoltaic exports are also facing certain pressure.
Recently, on the supply side, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises are nearing the end of their resumption of production, with high daily output and narrowed upward space; Overseas New Zealand direction, due to power shortages, supply has slightly decreased. On the demand side, downstream sectors have seen a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing a slight destocking.
Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that electrolytic aluminum will experience strong fluctuations in the short term, but the upward space is narrowing. In the short and long term, the performance will be mainly strong at first and then weak.
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