According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market was running weakly in August. From August 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 6012 yuan/ton to 5957 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.91% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 12.55%.
In the first half of the month, the demand side continued to be sluggish, factory prices fell to stimulate shipments, downstream purchasing power was limited, and the ethanol market was weak. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market prices remained weak and stable, with demand continuing to decline. Factories saw a decrease in shipping prices, but downstream purchasing power was limited, resulting in relatively flat trading volumes. At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices remained weak and stable, with raw material prices rising, putting pressure on the costs of ethanol production enterprises, increasing market supply, and demand side demand for fixed procurement. At the same time, there is a strong demand for fixed purchases on the demand side, and actual transactions are light.
In terms of cost, the domestic corn market prices are stable but relatively weak, and traders’ enthusiasm for shipment has increased, gradually accepting sales. However, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, maintaining on-demand procurement, and the market volume of goods is not large. There are few purchasing entities in the port, the arrival volume remains low, the demand for loading is not high, and traders are mainly slow to reduce inventory. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions. Negative factors affecting the ethanol supply side.
On the demand side, the off-season of Baijiu consumption continues and orders are postponed; The short-term anhydrous procurement of methyl ethyl ester remains stable; There is little fluctuation in the short-term production of ethyl acetate. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.
In the future market forecast, the negative impact of cost is expected, while the market supply remains abundant, resulting in overall shipping pressure. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that domestic ethanol prices will remain stable with a weak trend in the short term.
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