1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, the upward trend of nickel prices this week (8.1-8.9) was not maintained and fluctuated downward again. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 131666 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14% from the first day and a year-on-year decrease of 24.54%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 9 times and risen 3 times, with overall nickel prices weakening and showing signs of rebound.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, the US manufacturing PMI value for July was 46.4, lower than market expectations and has been shrinking for 9 consecutive months. China’s manufacturing PMI value for July was 49.4%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The US non farm payroll report for July was weak, coupled with a series of weak financial reports released by US technology giants. Concerns about global economic growth anxiety and weak demand affected the market trend. However, the number of initial jobless claims in the US only decreased narrowly than expected, and various institutions predicted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in September, stabilizing market sentiment. The US stock market also rose sharply on Thursday, causing a wide range of fluctuations in the impact on nickel.
On the supply side, Indonesia’s nickel exports significantly increased in the first half of the year, with a total volume of 805000 tons and an annual growth rate of 20.7%. Under long-term supply pressure, several nickel mining projects in Australia have gradually reduced or stopped production. LME nickel inventory continues to rise. As of August 9th, LME nickel inventory reached 112404 tons, the highest level since December 2021. Shanghai nickel inventory is 16499 tons, showing a continuous downward trend. In July 2024, the national refined nickel production reached 28900 tons, a month on month increase of 8.2% and a year-on-year increase of 33.87%. In July, the national production of nickel sulfate was 27800 metal tons, and the national physical ton production was 126200 physical tons, a decrease of 9% month on month and 29.7% year-on-year. In July, the national production of nickel pig iron was 29900 tons of nickel, with 737000 physical tons. The physical tons increased by 10.69% month on month, and the metal tons increased by 6.43% month on month.
In terms of demand:
Stainless steel needs to be neither too hot nor too hot. It is reported that the national stainless steel crude steel production in July 2024 was about 3.1838 million tons, a decrease of 1.44% month on month and 2.13% year-on-year. Affected by high temperatures, overall demand is weak, and stainless steel plants are beginning to reduce their load. With the expected peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” approaching, stainless steel production will improve in August.
The demand for ternary batteries has slowed down. The installation of lithium batteries in June 2024 reached 43GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30%. 11 GWh of ternary batteries were loaded onto the vehicle, accounting for 26%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 32GWh, accounting for 74%, while the growth of ternary batteries has slowed down compared to the previous period. From January to June, 203G of lithium batteries were installed, a year-on-year increase of 34%.
Market forecast: Business analysts believe that the trend of the metal market is easily affected by macro factors, and the negative sentiment on the macro level may gradually weaken. There is an oversupply of international nickel, but domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai has weakened, and domestic demand expectations are slowly improving. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and rebound.
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