According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 29th to August 2nd, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8942 yuan/ton to 8842 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.12% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 20.13%. Recently, some devices have been shut down for maintenance and replacement, resulting in a decline in the overall operating rate of the industry. But the downstream industry load has also decreased, resulting in a reduction in the digestion of raw materials. Manufacturers holding goods are under pressure to ship, and negotiations for discounts on actual orders are underway to promote sales. The market center of gravity is fluctuating downward.
On the supply side and in terms of equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased, and suppliers are mainly inclined to maintain prices. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: there has been a significant increase in the supply of calcium carbide, and there has been a noticeable recovery and improvement in the operation of supporting calcium carbide equipment. At the same time, the early maintenance of the calcium carbide furnace has been completed, resulting in an overall increase in supply. The calcium carbide market is running abnormally low. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is experiencing a narrow consolidation. As of 10:00 am on August 2nd, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2510 yuan/ton. The cost impact of BDO is mixed.
On the demand side, although the downstream PTMEG industry has slightly increased with the increase of maintenance equipment load, and the TPU and PU slurry load in the polyurethane field has also increased, the second largest downstream PBT industry has experienced a significant decline in load due to the impact of some equipment load reduction production. The demand side has reduced the amount of raw material digestion, and the supply-demand contradiction still exists. At the same time, downstream industries such as THF, PBT, GBL, PBAT are experiencing a decline in market conditions, leading to poor transmission of industrial chain costs and severe pressure on raw material prices. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Market forecast shows that some maintenance equipment will operate at a reduced load after restarting, leading to an increase in market supply. Downstream industries are experiencing both negative and negative impacts, and overall demand has also increased. However, the supply-demand imbalance continues, putting pressure on manufacturers’ shipments. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly operate weakly.
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