In May 2024, the prices of upstream raw material dissolved pulp remained strong, providing support to the market. However, downstream cotton yarn enterprises maintained their rigid demand and had thin profits. They did not have a high willingness to stock raw material viscose staple fibers, and there was no obvious improvement in demand. Downstream yarn factories mainly consumed inventory, with limited release of new orders on site. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers mainly executed shipments; Some factories have tight shipments, and there is no inventory pressure on enterprises. The atmosphere of observation on site is becoming stronger. The mainstream market price is between 12900-13200 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable.
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in May 2024, the price of viscose short fibers remained weak and stable. As of May 31st, the domestic ex factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13180 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month’s price of 13160 yuan/ton, which is basically stable.
In terms of supply: In May 2024, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained stable, and production remained stable. The overall market supply has slightly decreased. The inventory of various manufacturers is still at a low level, and some factories have tight shipments. There is currently no inventory pressure, and there is some positive support on the supply side.
In terms of demand: In May 2024, the downstream cotton yarn market will mainly execute orders, with little price change. There is not a high willingness for inventory of raw material viscose short fibers, and there is no obvious improvement in demand. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited.
In terms of cost: In May 2024, the market price of raw material dissolution slurry remained stable, providing support to the market. The market prices of auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remained stable, and the cost center remained stable. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is around 7700 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable. Actual orders are negotiated.
Downstream cotton yarn market
In May 2024, downstream cotton yarn was weakly consolidated, with market orders being the main focus. Some manufacturers adjusted prices narrowly, resulting in a slight decline in overall prices. Overall shipments were average, inventory was basically maintained, and demand side performance was weak. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and actual transactions on the market are limited. As of May 31st, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly decrease of 0.29%.
Future Market Forecast
The prices of upstream raw materials in the market are strong and stable, with low inventory from various manufacturers and tight shipments from some factories, which provides support for the market. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, and they mainly deliver early orders. The overall speed of market sales may continue to be stable. The replenishment cycle for downstream yarn enterprises is approaching, but their acceptance of viscose short fibers is limited. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is gradually increasing, and it is expected that the short-term viscose short fiber market has a high probability of stabilizing prices. The cotton yarn market will mainly operate weakly and steadily, and the price of viscose short fibers is expected to be between 13000-13200 yuan/ton.
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