In recent times, the domestic ABS market has continued to be negative, with most brand spot prices being lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 12150 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.61% from the price level on May 1st.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: The load of the domestic ABS industry has increased due to the improvement of the profitability of aggregation enterprises in the early stage. Recently, the average operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises has continued to increase, currently reaching around 65%. The production has increased synchronously, and the supply of goods on site has also increased accordingly. And there are still expectations for improvement in the future, with supply side support for ABS spot gradually weakening.
Cost factor: Recently, the trend of ABS upstream materials has generally weakened, with concentrated resumption of acrylonitrile maintenance equipment and lagging downstream consumption follow-up, resulting in a certain supply-demand contradiction in the market. The current acrylonitrile market is bearish.
Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been weak. There is a trend of supply relaxation, while downstream demand remains unchanged. The external market prices continue to weaken, and the news of low-priced transactions stimulates the domestic market, resulting in low buyer inquiry intentions. The mentality of merchants is gradually becoming empty, and the market is consolidating its weakness.
Recently, the styrene market has stopped falling and rebounded. The strong trend of upstream pure benzene provides support for the styrene market. Although the market demand is mainly for basic needs, there are some production line maintenance plans in the future, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. It is expected that styrene will continue to strengthen consolidation in the future due to factors such as cost.
In terms of demand: The main terminal demand for ABS has not improved, and the overall load of downstream factories is generally stable, with stocking operations mainly focused on buying in demand. Traders are flexible in their orders, leading to an increase in low-end market offers and a decrease in the speed of goods circulation. The market momentum is weakening, and the demand side is not providing enough support for the market.
Future Market Forecast
Recently, domestic ABS prices have been weak. From a fundamental perspective, the center of gravity of the upstream three materials of ABS is falling, which weakens the cost support for ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant has significantly increased, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. On the demand side, the demand for goods is weak, and the support for spot goods is not good. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market may experience a weak downward trend in the short term.
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