According to statistics, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride in 2023 has declined. The price at the beginning of the year was 8062.5 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 7662.5 yuan/ton. The price of phthalic anhydride in 2023 has decreased by 4.96%. The highest price for the year occurred in mid September, with a highest price of 8850 yuan/ton. The lowest price for the year occurred in mid December, with a lowest price of 7400 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 19.59%.
From the domestic price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the market trend of phthalic anhydride is declining in 2023. The annual trend shows an “M” shape, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride can be roughly divided into four stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid March, when the price trend of phthalic anhydride increases; The second stage is from late March to the end of June, with a downward trend in the phthalic anhydride market; The third stage is from early July to mid September, during which the price of phthalic anhydride rises rapidly; In the fourth stage, from late September to the end of the year, the market price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and decreased.
The two periods of increase in domestic phthalic anhydride in 2023 are from the beginning of the year to mid March and from early July to mid September. There are several positive factors, including an increase in raw material crude oil, an increase in the price trend of ortho benzene raw material ortho phthalic anhydride, and a significant increase in cost support. In addition, the maintenance of ortho benzene equipment has led to a tight supply of ortho benzene and an increase in price, which has strengthened the cost support for ortho phthalic anhydride and led to an upward trend in the phthalic anhydride market. The second is the increase in export volume of phthalic anhydride, which provides significant support for the demand for phthalic anhydride. The third is the demand support for downstream plasticizers. During this period, the operating rate of the plasticizer industry has increased, providing strong support for the upstream phthalic anhydride market. The positive support has led to an increase in the price trend of phthalic anhydride during this period.
The two stages of decline in the trend of phthalic anhydride market are from late March to the end of June and from late September to the end of the year. On the one hand, due to the prominent supply-demand contradiction, in the early stage, due to the rise of the phthalic anhydride market, some units were put into operation for production, resulting in sufficient domestic spot supply. In addition, with the impact of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, as the industrial naphthalene price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride raw material continues to decline, the cost support for naphthalene phthalic anhydride weakens, and the downstream industry’s loss situation has not significantly improved. The overall operating load has decreased, the demand for phthalic anhydride has increased slowly, and resistance to high prices has increased, The market for phthalic anhydride using ortho benzene method has declined. On the other hand, the market trends of upstream and downstream products have seen a significant decline in the price trend of adjacent benzene at this stage, which has lost cost support for phthalic anhydride and led to a decline in the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the downstream plasticizer industry has suffered serious losses, and there is no active procurement of phthalic anhydride. The demand for phthalic anhydride may be difficult to significantly increase, and the demand side is still under pressure. The combination of negative factors has led to a decline in the market price trend of phthalic anhydride.
Overall, the domestic phthalic anhydride market has slightly declined in 2023. With the continuous increase of phthalic anhydride production capacity, domestic production may increase, and market supply may increase, which has a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market. The statistics of domestic phthalic anhydride production capacity in recent years are as follows:
In 2023, there will be an increase in domestic exports of phthalic anhydride, which will provide favorable support for the price of phthalic anhydride. This is mainly due to the oversupply of domestic phthalic anhydride, which has become a major outlet for the market. Moreover, China’s phthalic anhydride is in a global price depression, coupled with India’s mandatory BIS certification of phthalic anhydride in the second half of the year, resulting in a significant increase in China’s phthalic anhydride exports to India in the first half of the year. With the oversupply of domestic phthalic anhydride, the low price advantage of domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride supply also lays a certain guarantee for its impact on overseas markets. It is expected that domestic phthalic anhydride exports will continue to rise in the later stage.
Market forecast: The domestic phthalic anhydride market has severe overcapacity, coupled with the continuous increase in production capacity of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, neighboring phthalic anhydride is being suppressed to a certain extent. In addition, the real estate industry has gradually entered a destocking stage in the past two years, and the supply of plasticizers in the plasticizer industry chain is clearly oversupplied. In addition, the process of replacing traditional plasticizers with environmentally friendly plasticizers is still ongoing, and the demand for traditional phthalic anhydride has not significantly increased. However, the increase in export volume has brought certain benefits to the phthalic anhydride market, The combined influence of bullish and bearish factors is expected to result in the highest market price of phthalic anhydride in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the highest price around 9000 yuan/ton and the lowest price possibly appearing in the second quarter, with the lowest price around 6000 yuan/ton.
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