Price trend in 2023
According to data from Business Society, the average market price of ammonium sulfate on January 1st was 1243 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average market price of ammonium sulfate was 833 yuan/ton. The domestic ammonium sulfate market fell by 32.98% for the whole year of 2023. The highest value of ammonium sulfate for the year was 1240 yuan/ton on February 2nd, and the lowest value for the year was 663 yuan/ton on June 26th.
2023 Market Analysis
In 2023, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices continued to decline and then fluctuated.
The ammonium sulfate market continued to weaken in the first half of 2023, with prices falling continuously. In the first half of the year, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market continued to be weak, with a small amount of downstream purchases and excessive pressure on prices, resulting in weak new order transactions. The export performance of ammonium sulfate is poor, and the market situation continues to be sluggish. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has dropped significantly, and domestic grade ammonium sulfate has followed suit. The continuous weakening of urea prices in the first half of the year has negatively impacted the ammonium sulfate market. Under the influence of bullish and bearish factors, the ammonium sulfate market continued to decline in the first half of the year.
In the second half of 2023, the ammonium sulfate market saw mixed ups and downs. The domestic ammonium sulfate market price increased significantly in July. The inventory of ammonium sulfate in the market is low, and manufacturers and distributors are hesitant to sell. The significant increase in urea prices has boosted the nitrogen fertilizer market. The international market for ammonium sulfate is improving, with increased buying. The price of ammonium sulfate began to decline in August. The poor performance of the international market has a negative impact on the domestic market. In September, due to domestic urea export restrictions and India’s release of a new round of bidding news, the international nitrogen fertilizer market surged, and the domestic ammonium sulfate bidding price significantly increased. Export orders have significantly increased, and downstream and distributors are actively acquiring goods. The market price of ammonium sulfate decreased from October to November. The market demand is weak, and downstream and dealer inquiries have decreased. The decrease in international market transaction prices has an impact on the domestic market. The bidding price of domestic ammonium sulfate increased in December. Foreign orders have been followed up with a small amount, and market transactions are good.
According to the K-bar chart of 2023, it can be seen that the maximum increase in caprolactam in July 2023 was 53.28%. The largest decline of the year was in November, with a decline of 30.94%.
2024 Aftermarket Forecast
Supply situation
In 2023, the annual production capacity of ammonium sulfate plants that have been put into operation and are about to be put into operation in China will reach over 21 million tons. It is expected to eliminate 52.28 million tons of coking production capacity, add 50.2 million tons, and net eliminate 2.08 million tons in 2023. In 2023, the domestic production capacity of caprolactam increased, with an additional production of 1.26 million tons of ammonium sulfate. From January to October 2023, China’s ammonium sulfate production was 13.66 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.31 million tons. The total production is expected to be around 18 million tons in 2023.
Export situation
The export volume of ammonium sulfate from China in 2023 was 13.77 million tons, an increase of 11.5% compared to the same period last year. The export amount was 2.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.6% compared to the same period last year in 2022. The proportion of ammonium sulfate exports increased from 53.5% in 2013 to 84.8% in 2023, indicating a high dependence on exports. The export market situation of ammonium sulfate directly affects the domestic market.
Demand situation
Ammonium sulfate is mainly used in the field of compound fertilizers, and the proportion of rare earth mining applications has decreased. The demand for other refractory materials, combustion aids, dyeing aids, and other fields has decreased. In 2023, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market steadily increased, with domestic demand growth being smaller than foreign demand. The demand for domestic ammonium sulfate has increased and is mostly used for export.
summary
In summary, the overall domestic ammonium sulfate market in 2023 is weak and volatile. With the growth of demand for agricultural fertilizers in China, the market demand for ammonium sulfate will continue to increase. The production capacity and process of ammonium sulfate in our country are also constantly improving and innovating. It is expected that the growth momentum of the domestic ammonium sulfate industry will continue in 2024, and the production and export volume will continue to increase. To increase domestic sales and reduce export dependence, it is necessary to achieve diversified development of product consumption.
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