1、 Price trend
According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in December. On December 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5698 yuan/ton. On December 29th, the average price was 5638 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 1.05% during the month.
2、 Market analysis
The PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in December. In the first half of this month, the spot market fell first and then rose. Affected by the continuous weakening of initial futures, spot market prices have also fallen. The recovery of the futures market in the later period has driven the confidence of the spot market, and the PVC spot price has rebounded and risen. In the middle of the month, be cautious and observe. The confidence in the PVC spot market is average, and prices are mainly stable with slight fluctuations. In the latter half of the year, the spot market rose first and then fell. Affected by the fire incident in the cracking workshop of a company’s olefin plant in Zibo, Shandong, the futures market in the early stage was biased towards strong operation. Some spot manufacturers have raised prices, and dealer prices have followed suit. In the later period, futures continued to decline, market confidence was severely suppressed, the trading atmosphere was poor, and market prices were lowered. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5300-5800 yuan/ton.
On December 28th, international crude oil futures plummeted by over 3%. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.77 per barrel, a decrease of $2.34 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $77.15 per barrel, a decrease of $2.39 or 3.0%. Red Sea shipping has gradually resumed, geopolitical risks have eased, and oil prices are under pressure.
In terms of calcium carbide, some areas in the northwest have unstable power supply for calcium carbide enterprises, resulting in a decrease in production volume. In addition, some areas are affected by rainy and snowy weather, and the circulation of calcium carbide is not smooth, leading to a tight supply of calcium carbide. In December, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly increased. The price of calcium carbide increased from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.29%. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early January, with consolidation being the main trend.
3、 Future Market Forecast
According to PVC analysts from Business Society, the PVC spot market prices have fluctuated and fallen this month, and the real estate market has performed less than expected. Downstream market demand is weak, and purchasing enthusiasm is average. At present, traders purchase at low prices, and the transaction situation is still acceptable. In addition, international crude oil futures have plummeted by over 3%. The combination of negative factors is expected to result in a weak and stable PVC market in the short term.
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