According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have continued to decline recently. On December 5th, the rare earth index was 487 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 51.64% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 79.70% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)
The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have all declined. As of the 6th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 580000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.11%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 472500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.07%; The price of neodymium oxide is 482500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 1.53%; The price of neodymium metal was 612500 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.61%; The price of praseodymium metal is 600000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 3.23%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 485000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.02%.
The domestic light rare earth market has continued to decline, with recent transactions mainly in demand. Due to a small number of new orders and low purchasing willingness of enterprises, the overall decline in the market is difficult to change. Recently, some companies have reduced production and ensured prices, while downstream purchases are on demand. Metal spot transactions are under pressure, and downstream magnetic material companies have a low willingness to purchase, mainly relying on inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, leading to a continuous decline in rare earth market prices. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, and the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is still inverted. The transaction situation is poor, and the decrease in procurement has led to a continuous decline in the domestic light rare earth market prices.
According to statistics, in October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 989000 and 956000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 5.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.2% and 33.5%, respectively. From January to October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 7.352 million and 7.28 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China imported a total of 145000 tons of rare earths from January to October 2023, a year-on-year increase of 39.8%. The significant increase in imported rare earth raw materials has impacted the domestic rare earth market, causing a decline in the light rare earth market.
Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.
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