1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of November 24th, the spot nickel quotation was 130500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.28% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 35.99%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen 10 times and risen 1 time in the past 12 weeks. Recently, nickel prices have continued to decline.
Nickel industry chain
On a macro level, the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve have been released, indicating that restrictive interest rates will be maintained and caution will be exercised in the future. There is still a possibility of further interest rate hikes, and there is no indication of a rate cut. The US dollar has stopped falling and rebounded.
On the supply side, although some enterprises have stopped production for maintenance, the overall situation of oversupply has not been effectively alleviated. This has put tremendous pressure on nickel prices and has had a negative impact on the operating conditions of nickel production enterprises.
In terms of demand: With the increase in stainless steel production and the expansion of the new energy battery market, the demand for nickel has increased. Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for military and ship alloys, and inferior demand for civilian alloys. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable.
In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined nickel in China in October 2023 was 6441.889 tons, an increase of 898.92 tons month on month or 16.22%; A year-on-year decrease of 5510.618 tons, a decrease of 46.1%. From January to October 2023, the total import volume of refined nickel in China was 76132.126 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51474.328 tons, a decrease of 40.34%.
In summary, in the situation of surplus supply on the fundamental side and relatively weak demand, cost side nickel production enterprises are facing losses, and oversupply has become the main reason for the current weakening of nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will remain weak and difficult to improve in the short term.
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