Price trend
In September, the domestic EVA market remained stagnant and fell, with a significant decline in spot prices in the second half of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 30th, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 13166.67 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.95% compared to the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
Since early September, the overall supply of ethylene at the raw material end has gradually increased. The supply of inventory at the port is stable, while overseas sources of goods are increasing. The cost side of the petroleum market has been strengthened due to the strong impact of crude oil fluctuations, coupled with the release of domestic stock demand in September. Therefore, the ethylene market has a long short game within the range, and the market is relatively stable and strong;
In terms of vinyl acetate, the industry started at a low level at the beginning of the month, but there were additional sources of imported goods. In the latter half of the year, the load gradually rebounded and the tight supply pattern eased. At the same time, the remote upstream crude oil has boosted, coupled with the demand for pre holiday stocking, vinyl acetate is basically facing a good trend. In September, on exchange trading focused on delivering orders, but in late October, trading slowed down and prices remained stable and strong. During the cycle, the market for EVA raw materials remained strong, and the support for the EVA market was moderate.
On the supply side:
In September, the resumption of installation and maintenance of domestic EVA enterprises were mutually evident, and the industry’s operating rate was mainly characterized by high fluctuations. The high point of overall enterprise load occurred in the second week, about 88%. Due to a significant increase in supply in the first half of the month, supply pressure quickly rose. Afterwards, the operating rate fluctuated and reorganized, with an average load of about 80.07% within 30 days. In terms of production, it is generally the same as last month, with a monthly production of around 170000 tons. The pressure on factory inventory is gradually increasing, and manufacturers are loosening their factory pricing. The mentality of traders has weakened, following the drop in factory prices. EVA suppliers have weak support for spot goods.
In terms of demand:
September is the traditional peak season for EVA consumption, but this year’s “Golden Nine” domestic EVA market stock boom has not arrived as scheduled. At the beginning of the month, photovoltaic companies were able to smooth out the decline in EVA consumption in other directions by taking on the preliminary stage of stocking market. However, as the positive demand for photovoltaic film gradually wears out, the negative trend of long-term weak consumption of foam shoe materials begins to dominate. The synchronous weakening of cable material delivery has led to a gradual collapse of the demand side for EVA. At present, the follow-up of terminal enterprises is lagging behind, and there is limited trading on the market. The buyer has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and is resistant to high priced sources of goods.
Future Market Forecast
Overall, the EVA market did not perform well during the peak season in September and fell against the trend. Although the raw material market remains strong in supporting EVA spot sales, weak downstream demand is dragging down the market. At the same time, the industry load continues
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