According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in the East China region fell first and then rose this week (August 28th -9.4). On August 28th, the average market price was 216460 yuan/ton, and on September 4th, the average market price was 217310 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%.
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The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for nine consecutive weeks, with a slightly volatile operation in late July.
In terms of the futures market, the recent macro trend has been good, with the overall domestic and international environment warming, inflation in the United States falling, expectations for interest rate hikes lowered, and the external market showing a good trend. The domestic side continues to release heavyweight positive news, with economic expectations improving and overall macroeconomic performance improving, driving the metal market up. The metal market has generally risen this week, while tin prices have only slightly increased due to the drag of fundamentals.
The weak supply and demand situation has dragged down the upward trend of tin prices. There have been many news on the supply side in the Wa region recently, but domestic market insiders generally believe that the real impact of Myanmar’s mining ban on the market may be after September. Fundamentally speaking, the recent rebound in domestic refinery operations has led to a buildup of inventory in the domestic society. In terms of demand, downstream buyers still purchase according to demand, buying at low prices, and demand tends to be rigid. Overall, the supply and demand in the tin market are still weak, and the market sentiment is on the wait-and-see side. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future without the influence of external news. The recent market fluctuations will mainly follow macro factors, and the latest developments in Myanmar’s mining ban news will continue to be monitored in the future.
On September 3rd, the base metal index stood at 1231 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.82% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).
According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were 14 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2023 (8.28-9.1), with aluminum (3.65%), dysprosium metal (2.94%), and lead (2.32%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are two products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.68%) and cobalt (-1.65%) being the top two products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.68%.
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