According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from July 27th to August 3rd, the domestic butadiene market price remained at 7201 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 19.01% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.81%. The higher prices of crude oil and Naphtha have brought about a certain pull from the cost side. At the same time, the prices of some downstream products have risen, which has certain support from the market demand side. The merchants’ expectations of demand are stronger, and the offer of the outer market for the far month ships is firm, so the market atmosphere is high.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: crude oil continues to rise, and there is profit taking and risk aversion behavior in the market. The expectation of tightening market supply in the later stage still plays a role, and it is expected that the oil market will still have upward momentum, but upward resistance will limit the upward range of oil prices. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.49 per barrel, a decrease of $1.88 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.20 per barrel, a decrease of $1.71 or 2.0%.
In terms of Naphtha, the domestic Naphtha market continued to be at a high level. Supported by the just need of terminal restructuring, the refinery actively pushed up, and the deal was good. On August 3, the benchmark price of Naphtha of the business community was 8054.00 yuan/ton. The cost of butadiene is a favorable factor.
On the supply side, the main production enterprises, Sinopec, and various sales companies have stable prices for butadiene, with a listed price of 7200 yuan/ton as of August 3rd. Some preliminary maintenance devices have been restarted, and the capacity utilization rate of the butadiene industry has increased month on month. Short term bearish impact on butadiene supply side.
On the demand side, some maintenance devices were restarted, and the capacity utilization rate of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and Styrene-butadiene increased month on month. As of August 3, the benchmark price of Styrene-butadiene of the business community was 11758.33 yuan/ton, and the benchmark price of Polybutadiene was 10940.00 yuan/ton. The profit of the downstream industry was fair, and there was no obvious drag on the demand side. The demand for butadiene is relatively strong.
On August 2nd, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $695-705 per ton; China CFR reports 745-755 US dollars per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $405-415 per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 495-505 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, as some supplier prices increase, it is difficult for the market to have low-priced supply to supplement. Short term bullish expectations further stimulate downstream inquiries to follow up, and the focus of transactions continues to rise. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market is expected to rise again.
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