According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the overall price of toluene showed a stepwise upward trend in July. On July 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7060 yuan/ton, and on July 29th, it was 7860 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.33% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil price rose and the downstream product oil consumption tax policy was introduced, driving up the price of toluene; In the later stage, on the one hand, international crude oil prices continued to rise, and on the other hand, domestic supply of PetroChina South China and CNOOC Huizhou decreased, once again driving the toluene market up significantly.
In terms of crude oil, as of July 28th, international crude oil futures prices have once again risen. On July 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.09 per barrel. WTI crude oil has reached its highest point in the past three months. The main contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $83.79 per barrel on July 28th. The oil market has been boosted by the expected tightening of supply and continued fermentation, as well as the rebound in demand. Regarding the future trend of crude oil, oil analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, supply tension is expected to continue to rise, as supply restrictions from Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue until August, which will help the oil market maintain a strong trend. The rebound in demand will also bring certain benefits to the oil market. In the medium term, the oil market still faces certain uncertainties. On the one hand, the situation between Ukraine and Russia may intensify, and geopolitical tensions will have an impact on the oil market. At the same time, there have been recent bad news from the European and American banking industries, and the possibility of a banking crisis erupting again could have a negative impact on oil prices. Overall, the oil market is relatively strong in the short term, and there is still uncertainty in the medium term.
Downstream: In terms of TDI, this month, the TDI market first rose, then fell, and then slightly rebounded, with an overall slight upward trend. On June 1st, the TDI benchmark price was 17300 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the price rose to 17800 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the increase was 2.89% compared to the beginning of the month, with a cycle high of 18166 yuan/ton. In the early stages of this month, the centralized replenishment of TDI downstream has formed certain support for TDI, leading to a rise in TDI prices; Later, with the end of restocking and resistance to high priced sources, TDI demand was weak and prices slightly decreased; At the end of the month, due to cost support and low willingness of merchants to lower prices, TDI prices are temporarily stable and firm.
In terms of downstream PX, it can be seen from the trend chart of P-Xylene that the price of P-Xylene rose in July. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of P-Xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, 3.03% higher than the price of 8250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, down 10.99% year on year. In July, the supply of P-Xylene was relatively normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 70%. However, in the maintenance of some P-Xylene devices, the spot supply did not change much, and the PX price trend rose. The trend of international crude oil prices in July has significantly increased, and the external price of PX has been affected by this. As of the 27th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1044-1046 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1069-1071 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has fluctuated mainly. On the whole, the operating rate of P-Xylene units in Asia is more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has not changed much. Supported by crude oil, the external price has risen, and the price of P-Xylene in the domestic market has risen..
In terms of gasoline, the gasoline price range fluctuated this month, with a slight increase at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. On June 1, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8478 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the price was 8700 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the price of refined oil rose first and then fell. On June 30, the State Taxation Administration issued Announcement No. 11 of 2023, which unified the policy of levying consumption tax on a variety of raw materials, including mixed aromatics. After the announcement of this policy, the gasoline market ushered in a rapid rise, with gasoline prices rising by 200-300 yuan/ton, As the policy impact weakens, the gasoline market gradually returns to rationality, and gasoline market prices have fallen. Although domestic refining operations slightly increased the supply of refined oil products in the second half of the month, gasoline prices continued to rise slightly due to the rise in crude oil prices.
Future forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to operate at high levels in the short term, with support for the cost of toluene; The tight supply of toluene in the short term will drive the high and strong price of toluene; Although the supply side may have eased in August, the downstream product oil of toluene is expected to continue to operate at a high level, providing support for toluene; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly consolidate at a high level in August.
| http://www.sulfamic-acid.com |