1、 Price trend
According to commodity data monitoring, the market price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell in June, with the overall increase being the main trend. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 21900 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 22900 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 4.57%.
2、 Market analysis
In June, the market price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, with the overall increase being the main trend. In the early part of this month, the manufacturer mainly placed preliminary orders, but there was not much inventory on the market and they were reluctant to sell at low prices, resulting in an overall market increase. In the middle of the month, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus was light, and the start of construction in the yellow phosphorus market was still at a low level. Some enterprises postponed driving, and market transactions were limited, with prices slightly falling. At present, most of the yellow phosphorus production enterprises are reducing their production load in the latter half of the year, with stable prices as the main focus. Downstream procurement is based on demand and can be taken as needed. As of now, the quotation in Sichuan region is around 22800-23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.
In terms of phosphate rock, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of June 26, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 942 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1, 2023 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1010 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.73%. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is average, with downstream purchases being the main demand, and new orders being relatively cautious. The phosphate ore data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly be weak and organized, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.
In terms of coke, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in June 2023, the coke market experienced a round of increase and decrease. As of the time of publication, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi region was 1754 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and a monthly decrease of 2.34%. In June, the coke market experienced a round of decline, with a cumulative decrease of 100 yuan/ton. Towards the end of the month, the market started its first round of increase with the positive boost of steel prices. However, the mentality of the coke steel game was heavy, and the first round of increase had not yet been implemented. Overall, the difficulty of landing the first round of rising prices has increased, and the overall market atmosphere has weakened. The steel market is in the off-season, and actual demand is weak. The coke steel game mentality is strong, and it is expected that the coke market will temporarily operate stably in the short term. The first round of rising prices will be difficult to land in the near future.
In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the month is 6220.00 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month is 6280 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 0.96% during the month. The phosphoric acid market price fluctuated this month, and overall, the price has increased. The price of thermal phosphoric acid has slightly increased this month, and the support of raw material yellow phosphorus is still acceptable. However, downstream demand is average, and the phosphoric acid market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid will be adjusted and operated in a narrow range.
3、 Future Market Forecast
Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that in June, the market price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, with the overall increase being the main trend. At present, the market trading situation is average, with enterprises focusing on stabilizing prices and downstream purchasing on demand. Both supply and demand sides are more wait-and-see. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will temporarily stabilize and operate in the short term, and actual transactions will be negotiated separately.
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