According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on October 17 was 40.68, the same as yesterday, down 59.32% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 49.12% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the last half of 2021
Figure 3: K column chart of mainstream natural rubber prices in the second week of October 2021
Data monitoring shows that during the week of October 11-17, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber first rose, then fell, and then up and down, like a shock trend in the form of “m”. Among them, the mainstream reported 13750 yuan / ton on Monday (11th), and about 13716 yuan / ton on Sunday (17th), down 0.24% on a weekly basis; Among them, the highest point was about 13816 yuan / ton on Tuesday (12th), and the lowest point was about 13600 yuan / ton on Thursday (14th), with a maximum amplitude of 1.5%.
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From the perspective of new rubber output: new rubber in the main natural rubber production area is in the peak production season, but frequent typhoons and rainfall in Thailand have caused floods in many provinces, affecting work, and the epidemic situation is still severe. It is reported that the number of confirmed cases in songka prefecture has increased sharply, and strict epidemic prevention measures will be implemented. The Malaysian Rubber Industry small farmers Development Authority (risda) encourages small farmers to harvest more latex instead of cup rubber blocks to increase their income. Globally, not only the shortage of chip supply has an adverse impact on the automobile manufacturing industry, but also the shortage of power supply has an impact on the manufacturing industry.
From the downstream demand:
First of all, from the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, with the sharp rise of raw material prices and fuel prices, the production costs of tire factories have increased significantly. Under the condition of poor demand, the inventory pressure has increased, and tire enterprises have suffered losses. In addition, some small and medium-sized tire enterprises have even begun to shut down due to strict policy requirements. According to the data, on October 7, the recent operating rate of Shandong semi steel tire enterprises with an operating rate of about 70% under normal circumstances decreased to about 49% and that of all steel tire enterprises decreased to 51%, both reaching the lowest level in the same period in history.
Secondly, from the tire data, the European tire and Rubber Manufacturers Association (etrma) said in its latest report on October 14 that the performance of the European tire market in the third quarter was flat, did not continue the good trend in the second quarter, and some market segments even showed negative growth. In the third quarter, passenger car replacement tire shipments were 60.55 million, slightly higher than 60.46 million last year and 2% lower than 61.58 million in 2019. Among them, the quarterly tire shipment increased by 20% year-on-year to 6.99 million, the summer tire decreased by 11% year-on-year to 16.63 million, while the winter tire remained stable to 23.46 million. The truck tire market performed well. In the third quarter of this year, the shipment of truck replacement tires was 3.56 million, an increase of 2% compared with 3.5 million in 2019. Etrma said it benefited from a higher than expected economic recovery and more positive inventory replenishment. However, affected by freight and delivery problems, this figure is still 1% lower than the same period in 2020. Fazilet cinaralp, Secretary General of etrma, said: “similar to 2020, the overall tire market in Europe declined slightly in 2021, but the whole season tire market still maintained strong growth, and the recovery trend of European tire industry is still unstable. I hope to show a more positive trend in the coming months.”
Thirdly, from the perspective of automobile data, according to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales of new cars in the EU decreased by 23.1% year-on-year to 718598 in September 2021, which is the lowest sales volume in September since 1995. The main reason for the decline in sales is the insufficient supply of vehicles due to the continuous shortage of chips. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in September, China’s automobile production and sales completed 2.077 million and 2.067 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 20.4% and 14.9% respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 17.9% and 19.6% respectively. The decline in output was 0.8 percentage points lower than that in August, and the decline in sales was 1.8 percentage points higher than that in August. The supply side is still uncertain. First, the overall chip supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be better than that in the third quarter, but the chip supply is still in short; Second, the orderly use of electricity throughout the country will increase the supply risk of the automobile industry; Third, the rise in electricity charges and the continued high price of raw materials will further increase the cost pressure of enterprises and affect the operation of the industry to a certain extent. China Automobile Association predicted that the annual auto market will be weaker than the growth expectation of 4% at the beginning of the year. On October 12, the passenger car Federation released the production and sales data of passenger cars in September: the output of narrow passenger cars in September was 1.721 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month on month increase of 16.1%; 9. The retail sales volume of passenger cars in a narrow sense was 1.582 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% and a month on month increase of 9.1%; In September, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles was 1.737 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% and a month on month increase of 15%.
Fourth, automobile manufacturers have seriously reduced production. It is reported that from October 6 to October 15, a Volkswagen factory in Mexico temporarily stopped production; From October 11, Ford Mexico plant was temporarily suspended; GM’s six plants in North America have been suspended; From October 18 to the end of this year, Skoda Czech factory will significantly reduce or stop production; In October, Nissan’s two factories in Mexico will stop production for 11 days and 8 days respectively; Toyota’s 14 factories in Japan, with a total of 27 production lines, will temporarily stop production in October.
In terms of inventory: as of October 15, the inventory of natural rubber in the previous period was 250694 tons (+ 2835 tons), the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 209450 tons (+ 7090 tons), and the domestic futures delivery inventory increased significantly; China’s natural rubber inventory in Qingdao free trade zone remains low, which plays a strong role in supporting natural rubber.
In terms of import and export: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on October 13, China imported 615000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in September 2021, down 29% from 866000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to September 2021, China imported 4.963 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 7.6% from 5.373 million tons in the same period in 2020.
As for the future market, the business community believes that from the macro perspective, the crude oil price is strong and the trend of basic raw materials is strong. From the perspective of industrial influencing factors, the weather is changeable this year. This week, the construction of natural rubber downstream tire enterprises is at a historical low, and the pressure on finished products is high; The lack of chips, the reduction of automobile enterprises’ production, the poor automobile sales data, the global gas and electricity shortage, the impact on the manufacturing industry and other factors have a great impact on the future market of natural rubber. The imported rubber in August will be concentrated in Hong Kong in the near future due to the early delay, but due to the impact of recent weather changes, it is expected that the shipping schedule may be extended. It is reported that the current overseas freight rate is lower than that in the early stage, and there is a certain procurement demand before Christmas abroad. It is expected that the short-term price range of Tianjiao in the future is more likely to fluctuate. In the future market, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the above multiple factors in a timely manner.
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