In September, the polyester filament factory continued to accumulate stocks, focusing on periodic price reduction and promotion. With the increase of production reduction and production restriction, the accumulation rate of polyester fiber was slowed down. At the same time, it began to rise significantly in the last ten days with the boost of raw materials. Therefore, the overall market showed a trend of shock first and then rebound in September. According to the price monitoring of the business club, polyester FDY rose the most significantly. As of September 29, polyester FDY (150D / 96F) rose 6.35%, followed by polyester DTY and polyester POY, up 5.38% and 4.95% respectively. At present, for mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7400-7950 yuan / ton, that of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 9150-9550 yuan / ton, and that of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 7950-8250 yuan / ton.
Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market in September, unit: yuan / ton
product 2021-9-1 2021-9-29 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall
Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) seven thousand six hundred and twenty-seven eight thousand seven hundred and seventy 6.35% 46.20%
Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) eight thousand seven hundred and ninety-seven nine thousand two hundred and forty-one 5.38% 40.67%
Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand and three hundred seven thousand six hundred and sixty-one 4.95% 48.59%
In the raw material market, the PTA maintenance device was restarted in early September, and the industrial operating rate increased to more than 80%. However, due to the weak downstream demand, the PTA factory was in sufficient supply, and the inventory rebounded significantly. In particular, the upgrading of the energy “dual control” policy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased the impact on the weaving industry, and the shutdown and production reduction increased significantly. Since the end of the month, PTA maintenance has been strengthened, and the industrial operating load has dropped to near 72%. At the same time, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil, the market fluctuated upward. As of September 29, the average price in the domestic spot market was 5083 yuan / ton, up 3.49% from the beginning of the month and 52.89% year-on-year.
The quality of the “golden nine” at the downstream demand side is insufficient. Under the current “double control” policy, the downstream impact is greater. In particular, the operating rate has fallen sharply after the Mid Autumn Festival, falling to the low level in the same period in recent years, and the operating load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has fallen to less than 50%. In addition, the release of foreign trade orders is still slow, and the delivery of completed foreign trade orders is also relatively difficult. In addition, printing and dyeing work stoppage and holidays lead to the very cautious attitude of weaving factories in receiving orders.
From the perspective of the textile industry, according to the textile index of business society, as of September 29, the textile index was 1000 points, an increase of 8 points over 992 points at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 13.49% over 1156 points (2018-09-03), the highest point in the cycle, and an increase of 46.84% over 681 points, the lowest point on August 13, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)
In terms of terminal textile and clothing retail, from January to August, the retail sales of textile and clothing totaled 856.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, but the retail sales in August was only 89.96 billion yuan, a new low since 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%. In terms of export, from January to August 2021, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was US $1984.468 billion, an increase of 5.90%, including textile export of US $92.773 billion, a decrease of 11.47%, and clothing export of US $105.695 billion, an increase of 27.95%.
Business analysts believe that under the influence of “double control”, the production capacity of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is concentrated, and the influence time lasts from mid September to the National Day holiday, which coincides with the traditional peak season of the textile and garment industry, and the bad demand side is upgraded. The supply of raw material PTA market is sufficient, the demand side is light, and the double weak pattern of short-term PTA supply and demand still exists. However, thanks to the strong support of crude oil and the gradual implementation of plant unit maintenance in the later stage, the supply will be improved, so the cost side can still be expected. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the “double control” policy and the trend of oil price.
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