Commodity index: on September 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 99.44, up 0.38 points from yesterday, down 7.18% from the highest point of 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 19.97% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)
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Recently, under the national “double control” policy, the price of chemical raw materials has increased. Under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the substantial increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products has risen rapidly recently. The manufacturer’s quotation is cautious, the pricing and delivery are subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation is not accepted, but the order arrangement is subject to payment.
Data monitoring shows that in September, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s market was greatly adjusted. The domestic mainstream price was 14750 yuan / ton on the 1st and 16275 yuan / ton on the 29th, with a monthly increase of more than 10%.
Among them, the continuous rise of raw acrylic acid is the main influencing factor. Since the middle of the year, under the influence of the “double control” policy, the operating rate of the industry has continued to decrease, and the spot acrylic acid supply in the market is tight. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of September 28, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 18366.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.38% compared with the price on the first day, and a year-on-year increase of 63.50% in a three-month cycle. The sharp rise of acrylic acid led to a significant increase in the cost price of polyacrylamide and a rise in the market; Acrylonitrile, another raw material, has a mainstream market quotation of about 14900-15000 yuan / ton this month, which has little impact on the cost change of polyacrylamide.
Secondly, the recent sharp rise in the market of fuel liquefied natural gas has a certain impact on the market of polyacrylamide. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market price of liquefied natural gas in China rose sharply first and then corrected slightly in September. On the 1st, the domestic mainstream price was 6110 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream price was about 6126.67 yuan / ton. Among them, the mainstream price rose sharply from the 14th to the 16th in the middle of the year, about 10%, and then the market fluctuated slightly. In about half a month from the 29th, the mainstream price in the domestic market rose to about 6126.67 yuan / ton. On the whole, in September, the increase was about 0.27%, and the maximum amplitude in the month was 5. 35%。 It is reported that, boosted by the auction of feed gas and driven by the cost of domestic liquid plants, the price rose sharply in the middle of the year, but the demand was not followed up enough. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the price of liquid plants was strongly supported. Under the condition of strict dual control of energy consumption and reduced demand of downstream gas consuming enterprises this month, the price of LNG remained volatile and the market was relatively strong, In the future, it is expected that the domestic liquid price will generally operate stably in the short term, but it is inevitable to reduce the price and arrange the stock near the National Day holiday.
As for the future market, the change of downstream demand for polyacrylamide has little impact on the recent market, while the change of cost pressure and inventory is the prominent influencing factor of the recent sharp rise of polyacrylamide market. Under the current situation, in response to the national policy of “dual control of energy consumption”, the enterprise has limited operation, tight market supply and continuous rise in the market of raw acrylic acid; The fuel liquefied natural gas is also affected by the policy, so it is expected that in the future, the acrylic acid market may be strong in the short term, and polyacrylamide is likely to continue to rise in the future.
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