The price of plasticizer DOP skyrocketed after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 7th, the price of DOP was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.32% compared to the price of 11583.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the price of plasticizers stopped falling and rebounded, with a significant increase in DOP prices on October 7th.

The price of isooctanol surged after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 7th was 12360 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.83% compared to the price of 12020 yuan/ton on October 1st. During the holiday period, plasticizer manufacturers actively purchased and replenished downstream stocks of isooctanol after the holiday. The demand for isooctanol increased, and the price of isooctanol increased significantly after the holiday.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that during the Double Festival period, downstream customers of isooctanol actively purchase, and after the festival, plasticizer enterprises replenish their inventory, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol prices; The price of phthalic anhydride raw materials has fluctuated and fallen, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fallen under pressure. Overall, after the holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP raw materials has significantly increased, and the upward momentum of plasticizer DOP has increased. The price of plasticizer DOP has also fluctuated significantly.

Price trend

In September, the domestic EVA market remained stagnant and fell, with a significant decline in spot prices in the second half of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 30th, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 13166.67 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.95% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Since early September, the overall supply of ethylene at the raw material end has gradually increased. The supply of inventory at the port is stable, while overseas sources of goods are increasing. The cost side of the petroleum market has been strengthened due to the strong impact of crude oil fluctuations, coupled with the release of domestic stock demand in September. Therefore, the ethylene market has a long short game within the range, and the market is relatively stable and strong;

In terms of vinyl acetate, the industry started at a low level at the beginning of the month, but there were additional sources of imported goods. In the latter half of the year, the load gradually rebounded and the tight supply pattern eased. At the same time, the remote upstream crude oil has boosted, coupled with the demand for pre holiday stocking, vinyl acetate is basically facing a good trend. In September, on exchange trading focused on delivering orders, but in late October, trading slowed down and prices remained stable and strong. During the cycle, the market for EVA raw materials remained strong, and the support for the EVA market was moderate.

On the supply side:

In September, the resumption of installation and maintenance of domestic EVA enterprises were mutually evident, and the industry’s operating rate was mainly characterized by high fluctuations. The high point of overall enterprise load occurred in the second week, about 88%. Due to a significant increase in supply in the first half of the month, supply pressure quickly rose. Afterwards, the operating rate fluctuated and reorganized, with an average load of about 80.07% within 30 days. In terms of production, it is generally the same as last month, with a monthly production of around 170000 tons. The pressure on factory inventory is gradually increasing, and manufacturers are loosening their factory pricing. The mentality of traders has weakened, following the drop in factory prices. EVA suppliers have weak support for spot goods.

In terms of demand:

September is the traditional peak season for EVA consumption, but this year’s “Golden Nine” domestic EVA market stock boom has not arrived as scheduled. At the beginning of the month, photovoltaic companies were able to smooth out the decline in EVA consumption in other directions by taking on the preliminary stage of stocking market. However, as the positive demand for photovoltaic film gradually wears out, the negative trend of long-term weak consumption of foam shoe materials begins to dominate. The synchronous weakening of cable material delivery has led to a gradual collapse of the demand side for EVA. At present, the follow-up of terminal enterprises is lagging behind, and there is limited trading on the market. The buyer has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and is resistant to high priced sources of goods.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market did not perform well during the peak season in September and fell against the trend. Although the raw material market remains strong in supporting EVA spot sales, weak downstream demand is dragging down the market. At the same time, the industry load continues

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of cryolite in Henan region have been running smoothly this week. On September 22, the average market price in Henan region was 7850 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.62%.

The cryolite market remains stable, with manufacturers mainly maintaining stable prices. The upstream price of cryolite is high, and the production cost of cryolite is favorable. Manufacturers mainly support the price, but there is resistance towards high priced cryolite in the downstream. The enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak, which suppresses the rise of cryolite prices. cryolite manufacturers have a cautious attitude, and cryolite prices remain high under cost support. As of September 22nd, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly increased, with an average market price of 3375 yuan/ton on September 22, an increase of 0.75% compared to the price of 3350 yuan/ton on September 18. Upstream mining is tight, and companies are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it difficult for fluorite flotation companies to start operations. The spot fluorite is very tight, and the refrigerant market is also rising. Demand is driving up the fluorite market price.

Future Market Forecast: Currently, there is no inventory pressure on cryolite enterprises, and manufacturers are actively shipping. Downstream demand support is insufficient, market trading is limited, and raw material prices are rising. The support for cryolite is not as strong as downstream resistance to high priced cryolite. Manufacturers are cautious, and cryolite prices remain high and firm. Considering cost impact, it is expected that the cryolite market will narrow in the future. Specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturers’ inventory and downstream acceptance level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, starting from September 11th, the demand for terminal rigidity increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market surged, with an increase of over 20%. On September 11th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1810 yuan/ton. On September 21st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 2200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 21.55%.

Since September 11th, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have not yet started up, and supply is still tight. The market in the terminal paper and printing industry has rebounded, rigid demand has increased, and the market for caprolactam has risen. The order volume for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market has skyrocketed. The mainstream quotation has risen to around 2200 yuan, an increase of nearly 400 yuan/ton, setting a new historical high.

Analysts from the Business Society Chemical Industry believe that the market for hydrogen peroxide remains high due to the strong support from the market and the continued demand for terminal rigidity.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 20, the price of DOP was 11350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02% compared to the price of 11584.17 yuan/ton on September 13. The prices of raw materials have decreased, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the stock preparation before the Double Festival has basically ended. The demand for plasticizers is weak, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and decreased this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 20th was 11860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.89% compared to the price of 12340 yuan/ton on September 13th. The construction of domestic isooctanol units has resumed, with sufficient supply of isooctanol and the basic end of dual saving stocking. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and inventory of isooctanol has accumulated, causing prices of isooctanol to fluctuate and fall.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of September 20th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.02% compared to the price of 8675 yuan/ton on September 13th. Crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly, neighboring benzene prices have risen, raw material prices have increased, and the willingness to sell phthalic anhydride has increased. The price of phthalic anhydride has also increased, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and there is a significant resistance to high priced phthalic anhydride. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride will remain stable.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in terms of raw materials, the prices of isooctanol have fluctuated and fallen, while the prices of phthalic anhydride have risen weakly, resulting in a decrease in the DOP cost of plasticizer products; PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, with poor purchasing enthusiasm for downstream PVC and weak demand for plasticizers. In the future, against the backdrop of weak supply and demand for plasticizers, there is insufficient demand support for cost reduction, and it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall.