According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 19th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the atmosphere in the epichlorohydrin market is weak, and corporate quotations are down. Recently, the price of raw material glycerol has been stable, the market for raw material propylene has risen, and cost support is limited. The supply side capacity utilization rate is around 50%. The main downstream epoxy resin market is weak, with consumption contracts and inventory being the main factors. Downstream buying is mainly to follow up on bargains, and there is a lack of mentality among operators, resulting in an increase in low-priced sources of goods.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on October 18th, the reference price for propylene was 7238.25, a decrease of 0.45% compared to October 1st (7270.75), providing general support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on October 18th was 14133.33, a decrease of 6.81% compared to October 1st (15166.67), which lacks support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that there is temporary support for costs and supply, but the demand side performance is still average. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may operate weakly in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in the supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1216.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The current price has decreased by 12.68% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, with a slight rebound this week. As of October 18th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1120-1330 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol showed a slight downward trend, with poor cost support. Downstream purchases remained in demand, while transactions in the formaldehyde market were flat, with mixed market fluctuations and consolidation.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has slightly declined, with most coal mines in the main production areas maintaining normal production and sales. Except for some mines that are still under rectification, the overall supply is basically stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors. Affected by the trend of commodities, the methanol futures market fell, and the atmosphere in the mainland market quickly weakened, leading to a decline in the methanol market.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and declining, with poor cost support. Downstream panel factories have maintained demand for procurement, while formaldehyde manufacturers have flat sales. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 17th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 208000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% compared to October 7th.

After returning from the holiday, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has remained stable and fluctuated slightly, and companies have adjusted their prices according to their own situation, with both ups and downs occurring. Recently, upstream spodumene concentrate prices have been operating weakly, with limited support for the lithium hydroxide market. The upward trend in the upstream lithium carbonate market has boosted the mentality of the industry, leading to a slight increase in the lithium hydroxide market. The demand side performance is still average, and the downstream entry mentality is cautious. Market transactions are mainly long-term orders.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on October 16th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 159400.00, a decrease of 0.99% compared to October 1st (161000.00).

According to lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society, there is currently no significant improvement in the demand side, and market transactions are average. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in upstream lithium carbonate prices.

Price trend

In the first half of October, there was a decline in the domestic PA6 market, and spot prices were generally lowered. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of October 16th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14375 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.04% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has decreased after the holiday. The market for raw material pure benzene has weakened, weakening cost support. At the same time, new units of caprolactam have been put into operation, and many production lines have resumed work recently, leading to an increase in supply. Downstream demand has shrunk, resulting in multiple negative effects on caprolactam. Overall, there is insufficient support for the cost side of PA6.

On the supply side:

After the holiday, PA6 production enterprises have generally operated horizontally in terms of load, with an average operating rate of around 73% in China. The market supply is relatively flat compared to the previous period, with an increase in on-site supply and a weakening of supplier support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 65% and 81%, respectively. Terminal enterprises still have some pre inventory raw materials to be digested, and their current willingness to stock is not high, and their acceptance of high priced sources is not good. The circulation speed of some sources of goods has been affected. The market has a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere. Overall, demand side support for PA6 slicing has weakened.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market fell in the first half of October. The price of caprolactam has weakened, and the overall cost support for PA6 has declined. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load and abundant supply. The demand side is cautious in picking up goods, and market trading is relatively light. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic spandex market has temporarily stabilized this week (October 9-13). As of October 13, the price of 40D spandex was 34250 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%. The industry’s starting point remains around 72%. The price trend of spandex in the market is strong, and the cost side has weakened. Downstream cautious wait-and-see sentiment is strong, maintaining just in demand procurement.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D/ 30D/ 40D

Zhejiang/ 38000./37000./35000

Henan/ 37000./35500./33000

Fujian/ 37000./34000./32500

Jiangsu/ 39500./37500./36500

The domestic pure MDI market has declined, and the overall negotiation atmosphere is not good. Traders often ship with them, and the mainstream negotiation on spot goods in the market is for 20200 to 20500 yuan/ton wire transfer in barrels for self pickup, a decrease of 1000 to 1500 yuan/ton compared to the end of September. The overall operating rate of the PTMEG industry is around 78%, with a molecular weight of 1800 quoted at 21000 yuan/ton. Some factories do not provide external quotations for the time being.

The downstream textile industry is in a holiday mode during the National Day holiday period, with poor order performance and average overall market shipments. Production enterprises generally have about 1-3 days off, and most trading companies are also on vacation. After the holiday, the resumption of work is average, and the current comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is around 65%. It is expected that the traditional peak season market will gradually come to an end in late October, and the operating load will steadily decrease.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current price stalemate of spandex is the main factor, with some loosening in the cost side. As downstream and terminal winter orders are gradually delivered, there is a risk of further shrinkage on the demand side, and the supply pressure on spandex will become prominent. In the short term, the upstream and downstream lack support, and the price of spandex may be weak.